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- Bringing Lukashenko to justice. What has been done so far
Today, one of the primary focuses of the National Anti-Crisis Management (NAM) team is to ensure accountability for Lukashenko and his associates for their crimes, including crimes against humanity against the Belarusian people, and war crimes, and specifically, crimes related to the unlawful deportation of Ukrainian children from Russian-occupied territories to Belarus. The regime is aware of the potential threat posed by the issuance of an arrest warrant for Lukashenko and is attempting to evade such a situation. Nevertheless, the NAM team remains steadfast in its work. So far, the team has taken three significant steps to pursue justice against dictator Lukashenko and his accomplices. 1. The NAM team prepared a preliminary report on the unlawful deportation of Ukrainian children, which has been: Presented at the Council of Europe and the European Parliament in May 2023; Shared with deputies of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) and the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine; Submitted to the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, EU countries, and the US State Department; Transferred to the Prosecutor General of Ukraine and the Commissioner for Human Rights of Ukraine; Widely disseminated through international and global media channels. 2. On June 27, 2023, NAM submitted a communication to the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court in accordance with Article 15 of the Rome Statute. This communication detailed the unlawful deportation/transfer of Ukrainian children from Russian-occupied territories to Belarus. 3. Today, on November 7, 2023, the NAM team will submit the second part of the communication to the ICC, which includes additional evidence of war crimes committed by dictator Lukashenko and his accomplices. According to reports and materials compiled by the National Anti-Crisis Management (NAM) team, the following developments and acknowledgments have taken place: Numerous media outlets worldwide, including The Telegraph, Reuters, Sky News, The Economist, Associated Press, Washington Post, Fox News, New York Times, US News, ABC News, and others, have produced materials highlighting the role of the Lukashenko regime in war crimes. In its resolution dated April 27, 2023, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) recognized the responsibility of the Lukashenko regime for criminal actions related to the unlawful displacement of Ukrainian children. On May 3, 2023, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine made amendments to the "Appeal to parliaments and governments of foreign states, international organizations and their parliamentary assemblies to condemn the crimes of forced deportation of Ukrainian children committed by the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus." These amendments specifically emphasized Lukashenko's involvement in the unlawful displacement of Ukrainian children. During the summit of heads of state of the Council of Europe held on May 16-17, 2023, in Reykjavik, the declaration was updated to include the role of the Lukashenko regime in the aforementioned criminal acts. In May 2023, the Prosecutor General's Office of Ukraine initiated an investigation into the unlawful displacement of Ukrainian children to Belarus. The NAM team continues to collaborate closely with the Prosecutor’s General's Office on this matter. On June 12, 2023, at the international conference "Responsibility of the Lukashenko regime for crimes against humanity and the migration crisis: prospects for international justice" in Vilnius, a preliminary report on the illegal displacement was presented by the NAM team. The conference was organized by the Ministry of Justice, Lithuania, and the Center for Law and Democracy (Lithuania). In August 2023, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the US Ambassador to the United Nations, raised the issue of the involvement of the Lukashenko regime in war crimes in a statement at the UN Security Council. The statement referenced data provided by the NAM. It is worth noting that the US Ambassador to the United Nations is a member of the President's Cabinet and the US National Security Council. The NAM team is systematically and diligently working towards holding those responsible for the crimes to account. The responsibility for the committed crimes is inevitable.
- Additional evidence implicating Lukashenko in the illegal transfer of Ukrainian children
NAM Deputy Head, Artsiom Brukhan, announced the submission of the second part of the Communication to the Prosecutor's Office of the International Criminal Court in The Hague. This submission provides further evidence of the involvement of dictator Lukashenko and his accomplices in the war crime of illegally transferring Ukrainian children to Belarus. The NAM team has established a clear hierarchy of "superior-subordinate" relations, highlighting the direct responsibility of Lukashenko and other individuals involved in these unlawful actions. At the apex of this hierarchy is Lukashenko himself, the self-proclaimed President who unlawfully holds power in Belarus. In addition to the evidence, a comprehensive legal assessment has been included, highlighting the individual criminal responsibility of all those involved in these criminal acts. Furthermore, particular emphasis has been placed on Lukashenko's special role and responsibility as the "boss" or leader overseeing subordinates who committed these crimes. The evidence presented also sheds light on previously undisclosed facts regarding the involvement of various Belarusian and Russian organizations in this war crime. It is worth noting that these organizations employ the same individuals but utilize different structures to achieve their objectives, including the re-education, indoctrination, and militarization of Ukrainian children. Our objectives remain threefold: To ensure an immediate halt to all crimes against Ukrainian children. To facilitate the safe return of the children to Ukraine. To pursue the prosecution of Lukashenko and his accomplices for their war crimes, seeking their arrest warrants.
- The second part of the communication on Lukashenko’s involvement in a war crime
On November 7, Pavel Latushka and representatives of the National Anti-Crisis Management (NAM) team held a meeting at the office of the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC) in the Hague. During the meeting, they presented the second part of the Article 15(2) Communication, which includes additional materials regarding the involvement of dictator Lukashenko and his accomplices in the war crime of the unlawful deportation/transfer of Ukrainian children. The newly collected materials compiled by the NAM team serve as a complement to the initial communication submitted by the NAM on June 27, 2023, in accordance with Article 15(2) of the Rome Statute. The materials submitted to the ICC consist of the following: 1. Additional evidence proving Lukashenko's direct participation in the unlawful deportation of Ukrainian children to Belarus. The NAM team has established a hierarchical structure of "superior-subordinate" relationships, highlighting Lukashenko's position at the top, as the self-proclaimed President of Belarus who holds power unlawfully. Furthermore, he serves as the chairman of the Supreme State Council of the so-called Union State of Belarus and Russia. It is worth noting that on June 27, the same day the initial communication was transmitted to the ICC, Lukashenko made a statement essentially admitting his role in these crimes. Additionally, on August 11, he publicly reiterated his personal decision to fully support the Talay Foundation in organizing the transfer of children from occupied territories in Ukraine to Belarus for so-called "rehabilitation" purposes. Lukashenko specifically emphasized that the funding for this activity came from the budget of the Union State of Belarus and Russia and was his personal initiative. 2. Evidence and previously unknown facts regarding the involvement of various Belarusian and Russian organizations, as well as their leaders and members, in the unlawful deportation of Ukrainian children to Belarus. 3. Detailed evidence concerning the re-education program for Ukrainian children under the guise of a so-called "rehabilitation" program at the Dubrava camp, which is managed by the state company Belaruskali. The additional materials provide substantiation that the children were not taken to the Dubrava Camp for medical treatment or rehabilitation. Instead, they participated in a comprehensive program of activities, many of which included elements of political, specifically anti-Ukrainian, pro-Lukashenko, and pro-Kremlin re-education. These activities involved interactions with representatives of the Russian Orthodox Church, motorcycle clubs such as the "Night Valkyries" and "Night Wolves," officials from the Union State of Belarus and Russia, the Lukashenko regime, members of the youth organization "Belarusian Republican Youth Union," as well as other propagandists supporting the war against Ukraine and promoting anti-Ukrainian and pro-Russian ideologies. The additional evidence is accompanied by a comprehensive legal assessment of the individual criminal liability of all individuals involved in these criminal acts. It also highlights the special role and responsibility of Lukashenko as the "boss and leader” in relation to subordinates who carried out these criminal acts. The materials provided to the ICC include the personal data of 37 Ukrainian children who were illegally transferred from Ukrainian territory, as determined by the NAM team. Overall, according to NAM, more than 3,000 Ukrainian children from over 20 temporarily occupied cities and towns in Ukraine were taken to Belarus, over 2,100 of which, including orphans, were brought to Belarus in violation of international law. The NAM remains dedicated to searching for and identifying victims of these war crimes. We have set three primary objectives: To work towards putting an end to the commission of crimes against Ukrainian children. To facilitate the return of the children back to Ukraine. To pursue the prosecution and issuance of an arrest warrant for dictator Lukashenko and his accomplices for the war crimes they have committed. Simultaneously, the NAM team is actively seeking to bring Lukashenko and his accomplices to justice for crimes against humanity perpetrated against at least 136,000 Belarusian citizens and residents between May 2020 and May 2023. We firmly believe that there are compelling grounds for these crimes to be considered by the ICC, as far as legally possible. Furthermore, we are focusing on the issue of criminal prosecution of representatives of the regime security apparatus who are suspected of engaging in torture. We are pursuing this avenue through universal jurisdiction in countries such as Poland, Lithuania, Germany, the Czech Republic, Switzerland, and others.
- Warrant for the arrest of Lukashenko – chronology
On 14 February 2023, the Humanitarian Research Lab of the Yale School of Public Health released a report on the systematic re-education and adoption of Ukrainian children by Putin’s regime. On 17 March 2023, the International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for Vladimir Putin and Maria Lvova-Belova. On 9 April 2023 the National Anti-Crisis Management at the first time declared about the displacement of children from the Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine to Belarus. On May 2023 the National Anti-Crisis Management published a report for policymakers on the illegal displacement of Ukrainian children to Belarus under the guise of the so-called Union State of Belarus and Russia and their re-education in Belarus. On 8 and 9 May 2023 the National Anti-Crisis Management presented its report on illegal displacement of Ukranian children to the permanent representaitves of the Council of Europe and memebrs of the European Parliament. On 17 May 2023, Heads of State and Government of the Council of Europe adopted a Declaration on the situation of children of Ukraine as part of the Reykjavik Declaration “United around our values” in which the fact of displacement of Ukrainian children to Belarus was noticed. On 27 June 2023, our team of the National Anti-Crisis Management submitted the Article 15 Communication on the unlawful deportation and transfer of Ukrainian children from Russian-occupied territories to Belarus to the International Criminal Court. On 13 September 2023, the European Parliament adopted a resolution condemning "the illegal transfer of more than 2,150 children, including orphans, from Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine to so-called recreation camps in Belarus, where they are subjected to Russification and indoctrination". On 7 November 2023, we provided the ICC with supplementary information to the first Communication. Today, the Humanitarian Research Lab published a report revealing Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s involvement in the systematic displacements of Ukrainian children to Belarus. The published report contains references to our materials, and the report itself confirms all the facts that we submitted to the ICC. The date of the future issuance of an ICC warrant for the arrest of Lukashenko is still unknown to us. But we believe in international justice and are confident that responsibility is inevitable. The Hague day in Lukashenka's calendar will definitely come.
- Lukashenka's recognition of Crimea as Russian territory
Recognition of Crimea by the dictator is a test of Ukraine’s leadership for decisiveness Lukashenka publicly de facto and de jure recognized Crimea as Russian. Interpretations that would allow arguing the opposite — no longer exist. The only question is in what capacity he made this statement. More precisely, who the Ukrainian leadership considers him to be. The position of the democratic forces is that Lukashenka is not the president. And all his statements and decisions must be regarded as legally null and void. They should have consequences, in the case of the recognition of Crimea as Russian — whoever Lukashenka is considered in Ukraine today. We are convinced: — The time has come for the leadership of Ukraine to declare the official non-recognition of Lukashenka as the president of Belarus. — To expel the ambassador of the former president of Belarus from Ukraine, declaring him persona non grata. — Stop any international cooperation with Lukashenka and his representatives and introduce tough economic sanctions. — Raise the issue of excluding Lukashenka’s representatives from all international organizations to which Ukraine is a member. Crimea is Ukraine. Belarus is not Russia. Lukashenka is not the president!
- Democracy begins with responsibility
In 2020, the Belarusian people showed that they are ready for both. The Belarusian people have shown that they are ready to take responsibility for the future of their country, the responsibility to determine this future through national dialogue and consensus. Through the key instrument of democracy – elections. The real, and not fabricated by the regime, results of the 2020 elections showed that the result of the national dialogue was the victory of the democratic aspirations of Belarusians and the defeat of the long-term dictatorship of Alexander Lukashenko. The Belarusians came to an agreement and, with an overwhelming majority of votes, made their choice in favor of democracy. And for the first time in the history of election campaigns in Belarus, this was convincingly proven by digital platforms for online monitoring of elections and alternative vote counting - “Golos” and “Zubr”. The very appearance of these platforms, created on the eve of the 2020 elections, is a sign of the responsibility and willingness of the people to fight for democracy, honestly protect their votes and not allow them to be stolen – like it was being done by the Lukashenko regime more than 20 years in a row before. The 2020 elections, in principle, have become the most important election campaign for Belarusians. And the most widespread. This was evident even during the collection of signatures for the registration of alternative candidates, when queues of several hundred meters formed at the collection points. This was evident when, without exaggeration, there was an almost kilometer-long line of Belarusians in front of the CEC building to massively file complaints about the illegal refusal of the Lukashenko regime to register a number of popular candidates. This was evident from the numerous actions of solidarity of Belarusians in response to injustice and repression, which in 2020 began much earlier than August 9. And finally, this was obvious on the day of the election itself, when the same huge lines lined up at polling stations, which were completely unprepared for such a massive voter turnout. The 2020 elections showed that the Belarusian people are one of the most civilized, responsible and ready for democracy in the world, I will say this frankly. Despite the fact that out of the 33 years of existence of the independent Republic of Belarus, Belarusians were able to live in democracy for only 4 years - until 1994, when Alexander Lukashenko became president. And that was the only time he was actually elected. After that, not a single election campaign in Belarus was democratic, fair and transparent. Almost every one provoked protests from Belarusians, who understood that their votes were being stolen and grossly falsified every time. And almost every election in Belarus ended in repressions against dissidents, brutal suppression of protests and the appearance of political prisoners. And Lukashenko continued to rule. Through the murders of political opponents, lies, violence, fear. But there have never been more fearful events in modern Belarus than after the 2020 elections. Remember earlier I talked about the huge queues at polling stations in every city and town? Having cast their votes overwhelmingly for Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, Belarusians did not go home. They were waiting for the protocols. Hoping that this time members of election commissions simply will not be able to resist the obvious and will show real voting results. That this time they will take responsibility and just do their job honestly. Only a few did this. By posting protocols with real results. The vast majority of polling stations did not post protocols at all. Instead, they called in riot police to disperse their fellow citizens, who were simply demanding compliance with the laws and their right to vote. Then Belarusians went out to protests throughout the country. Peaceful protests, non-violent. In response, the riot police started shooting at them. Throw grenades. Beat and maim. Massively detain and torture. Kill. The Lukashenko regime shut down the Internet throughout the country to hide what was happening. But it didn't work out. Belarusians still found out what was happening on the streets, what was happening in police stations and detention centers. The whole country learned about unprecedented violence on the part of “law enforcement,” about terrible mass torture, about the first murders of peaceful protesters. Violence has not stopped Belarusians and their desire for democracy, the rule of law and the protection of human and civil rights. On August 16, 2020, Belarusians went out to the largest protest rally in the modern history of the country. About half a million people took part in this March for Freedom in Minsk alone. And again, Belarusians did not violate laws on principle, did not resort to violence, nothing was destroyed or burned by the peaceful protestors. As in all subsequent marches and protests. Even when Lukashenko’s regime turned the country into a springboard for starting a war against Ukraine. At that time, continuous repression had been going on in Belarus for a year and a half; more than 1,000 people were recognized as political prisoners. But Belarusians still came out to protest. Against war. Against violence. One may say that this is why Lukashenko stayed in power. That Belarusians needed to respond to violence with violence. To shed not only their own blood, but also that of others, for freedom and democracy. Maybe. But Belarusians chose the civilized path. That is why the whole world admired the protests in Belarus. And yes, even if peaceful protests did not lead to the elimination of the dictatorship, they themselves are the best confirmation of what I said at the very beginning: “Democracy begins with responsibility.” And having accepted responsibility for the choice made in 2020, the choice in favor of democracy, Belarusians chose the most difficult path to fight for it. And this is still worthy of respect. And even more it is worthy of support. Belarusians proved this in 2020 and continue to prove today - that they are ready to take responsibility for the future of their country, are ready for democracy, that they, like any civilized nation, choose law and justice. But instead, Belarusians are being held responsible for Lukashenko’s crimes for three years now, and the real criminal, who is Lukashenko himself, has still not been brought to any responsibility. Every day Belarusians are illegally detained, imprisoned, tortured, expelled from the country, declared criminals, extremists and terrorists. I tell you this as a person who has been charged by the regime with 8 criminal charges, some of which carry the death penalty. Sentenced in absentia to 18 years in a maximum security colony. Lukashenko’s KGB included me in the list of persons “involved in terrorist activities.” So it turns out that a criminal is now standing in front of you? A terrorist? And this is just my personal story. One of many, because there are thousands of such stories (and even more terrible ones) in Belarus now... And at the same time, the real terrorist, criminal against humanity and war criminal - Alexander Lukashenko - has not yet been declared as such. Therefore, I will repeat once again - democracy begins with responsibility. And it is precisely bringing the Lukashenko regime to responsibility, to justice that is the greatest support that the civilized world can provide to Belarusians today. This is the biggest step towards the victory of democracy. Towards the victory of law and justice. What kind of responsibility am I talking about? First of all, about international criminal responsibility. 1. According to the report of the Center for Law and Democracy "Justice Hub", prepared with the support of the National Anti-Crisis Management and a copy of which I hold in my hands, since May 2020, more than 136 thousand (!) Belarusians have become victims of the Lukashenko regime’s crimes against humanity, and precisely such as: unlawful imprisonment, torture, murder, rape and other serious forms of sexual violence - including against minors, enforced disappearances, persecution and deportation. This report contains an in-depth legal analysis of crimes against humanity committed by the Lukashenko regime, and most importantly, a detailed algorithm of actions to activate the appropriate mechanisms of international criminal justice: the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court, the creation of a special International Criminal Tribunal for Belarus and the application of universal jurisdiction. This report has already been sent to all our international partners. You can also view it using the QR code that I am currently holding in my hands. 2. In addition, the team of the National Anti-Crisis Management prepared a Communication in accordance with Article 15(2) of the Rome Statute on the involvement of dictator Lukashenko personally and his accomplices in the war crime of the illegal transfer of Ukrainian children from temporarily occupied territories. The first part of this communication was transmitted by us to the International Criminal Court in Hague on June 27, 2023. On November 7, 2023, we transmitted the second part, containing additional evidence of this crime. In total, according to our data, more than 3,000 Ukrainian children were taken to Belarus, more than 2,100 of them, including orphans, in clear violations of international humanitarian law. The NAM team established a clear hierarchy of “superior-subordinate” relationships between Lukashenko and the officials and other persons involved in illegal actions. At the top of this hierarchy is the self-proclaimed president Lukashenko, who illegally holds power in Belarus and is also the chairman of the Supreme State Council of the so-called Union State of Belarus and Russia. I have copies of these documents in my hands. Pay attention to their volume. And let's ask ourselves - is all this still not enough to bring Lukashenko to justice? Are 1,500 officially recognized political prisoners, complicity in the war against Ukraine, and more than 136 thousand crimes against humanity and war crimes committed by this regime not enough for accountability to come? At the very beginning, I said that Belarusians clearly demonstrated their readiness to resolve the crisis politically and in a civilized manner. Through national dialogue and consensus. We are also standing for dialogue and for a round table following the example of Poland. But until responsibility comes, until Lukashenko is destroyed politically and everyone around him understands that national dialogue is the only way out, there will be no dialogue. There will be no way out of the crisis, there will be no democratic elections, no matter how much the European Union calls for them in its statements, political prisoners will not be released, the violence will not stop. The migration crisis organized by Lukashenko will not stop. The use of Belarus as a springboard for war against Ukraine will not stop. The abduction of Ukrainian children will not stop. But we can stop this. The European Union can stop this. All you need for this, all the tools, are in your hands. 1. International criminal liability for Lukashenko. Issuing a warrant against him from the International Criminal Court. There is already every reason for this. Issuing a warrant will destroy Lukashenko’s figure politically and will be a signal to everyone around him that he can and should be gotten rid of as a toxic asset. Let's do that. 2. Recognition of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus under the leadership of elected President Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya as the only legitimate government of Belarus. Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billström has already announced such recognition, here is his quote: “We recognize only one legitimate government of Belarus and that is of course the one operated by Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya who was the president-elect before President Lukashenko stole the election.” Such a recognition, again, would send a signal to the system that the Lukashenko regime will not be able to turn the page in international relations until the system gets rid of the dictator and begins a dialogue with the Cabinet and the democratic forces of Belarus. Let's do that. 3. Shock, complex sanctions - as a tool for accountability for all the long-term crimes of the Lukashenko regime and forcing the system to dialogue. We are talking about the need for complete harmonization of sanctions against Russia and the Lukashenko regime for military aggression against Ukraine, a ban on the transit of goods through Belarus; blocking sanctions on the financial sector, the elimination of exceptions to existing sectoral sanctions and the maximum expansion of sanctioned sectors of the economy, for example, wood processing, nitrogen fertilizers, mechanical engineering. And removing from the agenda the issue of easing sanctions and, especially, the lifting of sanctions on potash fertilizers. Again, the system must clearly understand that as long as Lukashenko is in power, there will not be any hope for a way out of the crisis. Sanctions will not be lifted, but will be expanded. Let's do that. 4. Non-recognition of the so-called parliamentary elections 2024 now, without waiting for them to be held. Since 2020, there is no legitimate government in Belarus that could conduct election campaigns. The date of parliamentary elections in Belarus is set by the president, but Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya was elected president, not Lukashenko. He cannot call any elections. The very fact of holding so-called parliamentary elections in 2024 will automatically mean that the new parliament will be illegitimate. This means that this “parliament” will not have the right to set the date for the presidential elections in 2025 - accordingly, they will already be illegitimate in advance And again, the system must understand that there is no way out of this situation while Lukashenko is at its center. And that the crisis can only be ended through national dialogue with the Cabinet and democratic forces - and without Lukashenko. So let's do it all. Let's take these steps and you will see that they will work. Democracy begins with responsibility. Belarusians are a responsible nation, and we can always reach an agreement with each other. But we have nothing to negotiate with Lukashenko. Lukashenko must bear deserved responsibility for all his crimes. Let's do it. It's time to act. Long live Belarus!
- Pavel Latushka spoke at the opening of the second recruitment of the “Talent Pool”
Pavel Latushka delivered a speech at the opening session of the second set of educational course for the "Talent Pool" campaign. The campaign aims to train professionals in public administration to work in the future New Belarus. The program involves the selection and professional training of Belarusian citizens who will play key roles in implementing reforms in state and local government during the transition period. In his address to the program participants, Pavel Latushka said the following: "Dear students of the "Talent Pool" program, As the Representative of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, I am delighted to welcome you to this program presentation. This project, led by my deputy, Yuri Hubarevich, can be rightfully considered crucial in matters pertaining to the transition of power and the transitional period in Belarus. My experience in public administration has taught me that the effectiveness of any organization, any body, relies on people—on a team that is formed and prepared to undertake the most ambitious tasks. And what could be more ambitious than leading our Belarus towards democracy? The "Talent Pool" program represents an important step towards achieving this goal. Building sustainable democratic institutions is a process that will span more than a year. I am convinced that you, as students of the "Talent Pool" course, will be the driving force behind systemic changes and reforms in an independent, democratic, and European Belarus. The knowledge you will acquire in this program will be essential for our country and our people during this critical historical moment of transitioning to democracy. In the future, you will hold key positions within the public administration system. Therefore, I would like to express my gratitude to you for becoming students of the "Talent Pool" program and wish you engaging and informative lectures, productive seminars, and practical training."
- Lukashenko's associate assists in enforcing sanctions against dictator's allies
Oligarch Nikolai Vorobey presented his case to the EU Court of Justice, seeking the removal of sanctions imposed on him Pavel Latushka, Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus and Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, Ambassador. Mr. Vorobey, along with others who find themselves in the same unfortunate situation as Lukashenko, disagreed with the dictator's claim that "sanctions made him stronger." Instead, he tried to shift sides by appealing to the EU Court, seeking support from a coalition of "unfriendly countries." The like-minded individual, comrade, partner, and "treasurer" of Lukashenko, Vorobey aimed to prove his non-involvement in the regime. In his lawsuit, he argued that the allegations against Bremino Group, his business entity involved in various sectors of the economy, did not demonstrate any support or benefit to Lukashenko's regime. He also highlighted that his economic activities in those sectors had either significantly decreased or were always limited. It is worth noting that in his plea to the EU Court of Justice, Mr. Vorobey not only distanced himself from supporting Lukashenko's regime but also expressed displeasure that the Great Stone industrial park, which offers even more attractive tax benefits than its managing company "Bremino-Orsha," was not subject to sanctions. Although this information was not crucial to the court's decision regarding Mr. Vorobey, it was acknowledged and recorded in the ruling. In fact, Nikolai Vorobey urged the EU Council to impose sanctions not only on the Great Stone company but also on all companies receiving tax breaks and other privileges from the Lukashenko regime. The European Court of General Jurisdiction upheld the sanctions imposed by the Council of the European Union, rejecting Vorobey's request for their removal. Consequently, European companies are still prohibited from engaging in cooperation with this businessman, and his assets remain frozen.
- Test for the European Union
Pavel Latushka took part in the panel discussion at the opening of the Belarusian Conference in Tallinn At the opening of the event, the deputy head of the UTC, the head of NAM noted: “Democracy begins with responsibility. 2020 gave Belarusians the opportunity to take responsibility for their civilized choice. 2020 is an achievement of the Belarusian people. Force was used against the Belarusians, but the Belarusians did not respond with violence. We, Belarusians, have taken responsibility for civilized elections. We bear responsibility today, we do not shift this responsibility to others. But has the democratic world taken responsibility for Belarus? Unfortunately no. Until the criminal Alexander Lukashenko, a war criminal responsible for crimes against humanity, faces the threat of accountability, democracy will not win in Belarus. Therefore, the current strategy is to do everything to bring Lukashenko to justice based on the collected materials. Crimes against Ukrainian children, war crimes, 136 thousand victims of crimes against humanity between May 2020 and May 2023 - Materials transferred to the International Criminal Court. Cases in national jurisdictions on facts of violence against Belarusians. What prevents prosecution? From my point of view as a lawyer, nothing. We need political will. Take one step. And this is a test. Democracy test. Not only the Belarusian people, but also the European Union stand the test. If, using the example of Belarus, the European Union and European democracy do not pass it, will Belarusians believe in democracy? Will these prospects change in 2025? Democracy will not win until there is accountability".
- Great construction with a limited intellect
Pavel Latushka: Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, Head of the NAM, Ambassador Recently, Aliaksandr Cherviakov, the so-called Minister of Economy appointed by Lukashenko, announced the development of seven strategic projects aimed at restructuring the Belarusian economy. These projects include the construction of a new cellulose plant, the establishment of basalt processing facilities, and the joint development of an airplane with Russia. However, perhaps the most ambitious project among them is the construction of a second nuclear power plant in Belarus. It may be speculated that Lukashenko has already paid off the debts for the first nuclear power plant. Has the Astravets station demonstrated economic efficiency and viability for the country? The reality is quite the opposite. The debts incurred by Lukashenko in pursuit of his "nuclear power" dreams amount to a staggering $10 billion. This translates to over $1,000 of debt for every resident of Belarus, including infants. Essentially, from the moment of birth, each Belarusian citizen is burdened with this debt, which contradicts the notion of a prosperous "nuclear country" under Lukashenko's rule. Furthermore, Lukashenko has not even begun repaying the debts owed to Russia for the first nuclear power plant. Instead, he may burden the country with several billion dollars of new debt for the construction of the second plant. However, the country is facing a severe shortage of funds. In fact, Lukashenko recently raised concerns about Rosatom's failure to meet the deadlines for the commissioning of the first plant and the subsequent need for compensation. Meanwhile, the deadline of April 2024, set by Russia for the start of debt payments for the first nuclear power plant, is rapidly approaching. Excluding interest, Belarus must find over $650 million in payments for the first year alone, considering that the loan was granted for a 15-year period. However, with no available funds, it is unclear where this money will come from. Despite the lack of financial resources, Lukashenko is eager to embark on yet another grand construction project, displaying his questionable judgment and intelligence. The audacity of such plans from the dictator and his cohorts is truly astonishing from any perspective. First and foremost, there are serious concerns regarding safety. The first nuclear plant was constructed with numerous violations and incidents, including the accidental dropping of the nuclear reactor vessel during installation in 2016. In 2020, the emergency cooling system tanker was damaged, and in 2022, cracks were discovered in the top seams of the Unit 1 reactor vessel. These are only the incidents that have been publicly disclosed. BelNPP poses a genuine threat to Belarusian citizens, as well as to neighboring countries. Lukashenko has already planted a "nuclear time bomb" in the western part of Belarus, and now he plans to do the same in the east with the proposed nuclear power plant in the Mogilev region. Moreover, Belarus itself does not require the amount of energy that the Astravets NPP currently produces or will be capable of producing. With two operational units, the domestic market simply cannot consume the excess electricity generated. Additionally, there are no viable export options. Consequently, the notion of the Lukashenko regime's "great construction" projects being financially viable is baseless. According to expert calculations, the production of surplus energy from the new nuclear power plant could reach approximately 90%. And there is no reason to believe that there will be a significant increase in energy demand, especially in such large volumes. The global economy, in order to improve efficiency, is naturally focused on reducing energy consumption. Energy-efficient high technologies and services play an increasingly important role, rather than energy-intensive industries and agricultural practices from a century ago, which only account for a significant share in the economies of third-world countries. However, Lukashenko seems to view Belarus as a third-world country. Thirdly, the promised nuclear power plant, according to Lukashenko and his officials, has not led to any reduction in energy prices for citizens or businesses. On the contrary, electricity tariffs continue to rise. In 2023 alone, they have been increased twice, by 6% and then by another 13%. The construction of a new nuclear power plant may result in a further 40% increase in electricity costs. Moreover, experts estimated back in 2020 that electricity produced by the Astravets NPP would be 2.5 times more expensive than gas-generated electricity. Additionally, there is a question regarding the fate of previously modernized hydroelectric power plants (HPPs) such as the Lukoml hydroelectric power plant, which used to provide up to 30-35% of the country's electricity needs. Significant funds were invested in the modernization of the Lukoml HPP. With the commissioning of the Astravets NPP, the necessity of continuing the operation of this hydroelectric power plant has come into question, as together, the two power plants (Lukoml and Astravets) produce much more energy than the country consumes. Although the HPP currently ensures the stability of the country's energy system during temporary shutdowns of the nuclear power plant, the simultaneous operation of both plants does not make economic sense. So where is the economic rationale here? There is none. This is not about Lukashenko himself, as his understanding of economics remains at the level of a negligent director of an outdated state farm. When global gas prices were extremely high, Belarus purchased gas from Russia. Now that hydrocarbon prices have significantly dropped, we are shifting from cheaper energy sources to nuclear energy. Lukashenko has effectively moved us from the Russian oil and gas dependence to a Russian nuclear dependency. There is no progress towards energy independence; only a worsening of the situation. And at the same time, our economy is being undermined by a Russian nuclear bomb, metaphorically speaking. Moreover, the entire country is at risk.
- Belarusian Democratic Forces and Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine have united against the Lukashenko regime
Pavel Latushka: Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, Head of the NAM, Ambassador Lukashenko, put an end to the persecution of the people – that is the primary message conveyed through any sanctions against the regime. In response to the criminal acts committed under Lukashenko’s watch, both domestically and internationally, nations around the world are continuously limiting the regime's capabilities. Consequently, for the majority of Belarusians, the name Lukashenko has become synonymous with missed opportunities and the cause of various restrictions. While sanctions may not solve all problems, they serve as a civilized means of responding to the actions of the regime. The question of their effectiveness is of utmost importance. The issue of sanctions exerting pressure on the Lukashenko regime holds significant importance for the democratic forces in Belarus. It reflects the response of our foreign partners to the regime's barbaric behavior, not only towards the Belarusian people but also towards neighboring countries. The sanctions are severely impacting Lukashenko and his regime, prompting him to make considerable efforts to remove or soften them and create corruption schemes to circumvent them, often involving third countries. However, these manipulations have not been particularly successful, as more and more countries recognize the need to enhance the effectiveness of sanction implementation. On March 2, 2022, the European Union imposed an import ban on Belarusian wood due to the country's involvement in Russia's aggression against Ukraine. However, related industries such as pulp and paper and furniture, which are not yet subject to EU sanctions, continue to financially support the Lukashenko regime. Consequently, these industries continue to access the European market. For instance, in the first half of 2023, the EU imported furniture from Belarus worth EUR 97.2 million, including wooden furniture valued at EUR 61.4 million. Furthermore, following the ban on Russian pulp and paper exports to Western markets, the import of pulp and paper from Belarus to the EU has significantly increased. Some of these goods may actually originate from Russia. Pulp and paper now account for approximately 4.5% of Belarus' total exports to the EU. This situation primarily arises from the disparity in the sanctions imposed on Russia and the Lukashenko regime. The revenue generated from the sale of processed wood and related products not only funds the Lukashenko regime but also contributes a substantial portion directly to his personal fund. Repressions in Belarus persist and even intensify, taking on inhumane forms. The war instigated by Russia against Ukraine, with the assistance and active support of Lukashenko’s regime, continues and is expanding to other regions. It is evident that the international community remains steadfast in its commitment to holding the Lukashenko regime accountable for its actions. The continuation of sanctions underscores the world's refusal to tolerate the oppression and human rights abuses inflicted upon the people of Belarus. The democratic forces in Belarus stand united in their determination to bring about positive change and restore freedom, justice, and dignity to our nation. In the current situation, it is crucial for democratic nations worldwide to react promptly to the actions of both regimes. Such reactions serve the dual purpose of imposing consequences and preventing further aggressive actions and dangers. Therefore, it is imperative to achieve early and comprehensive harmonization of sanctions against both the Lukashenko regime and Russia. Additionally, a ban on the transit of sanctioned goods through Belarusian territory is necessary. We have already communicated these proposals to all EU member states through official letters. The need for harmonizing imposed sanctions on Russia and the Lukashenko regime is also driven by the fact that, within the framework of the Union State, Russia and Belarus effectively form a common economic space, or rather, a single economy. The lack of harmonization of sanctions against both countries turns Belarus into a "gray zone" and facilitates offshore activities aimed at circumventing sanctions. In May 2023, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, in support of the democratic forces in Belarus, adopted a resolution titled “On the appeal of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine to the European Commission, the European Parliament, the Council of the European Union, the World Trade Organization, governments and parliaments of foreign states regarding the introduction of sanctions on the import of wood and wood products, fish and seafood from the Russian Federation and Belarus, a ban on the export of equipment and its components, as well as the inadmissibility of the functioning of international environmental certification systems on the territory of the Russian Federation”. Ukraine has joined the efforts to harmonize sanctions against Russian and Belarusian wood and related products. According to the Ukrainian side, it is necessary to halt the import of these goods to the EU. In our view, imports to the West should also be halted for other groups of goods where there is a disparity in the application of sanctions between Russia and the Lukashenko regime. This includes products from the chemical industry, glass and glass products, coal, peat, and other goods. Similarly, harmonization should be pursued concerning exports from democratic countries to Belarus and Russia. Sanctions are an effective and civilized response to the unacceptable actions of the Lukashenko regime. For this civilized response to achieve its objectives, it is crucial and necessary to maintain a united and unwavering stance among countries that have declared their commitment to human rights, international law, and the preservation of peace.
- Lukashenko's hopes of lifting sanctions on potash are dwindling along with fertilizer prices
Pavel Latushka: Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, Head of the NAM, Ambassador The recent quarterly report published by Nutrien, the leading global producer of potash fertilizers, has drawn the attention of NAM economists. The report revealed that Nutrien's earnings for the third quarter of 2023 fell below international analysts' expectations, resulting in a significant decline in the company's stock price. The question arises: what caused these financial consequences? Despite a 23% increase in sales volumes, surpassing analysts' forecasts (3.9 million tons sold compared to the average forecast of 3.5 million tons by five analysts), Nutrien's profits have been negatively impacted. According to the company, the primary factor contributing to the decline in profits is the plummeting prices of potash fertilizers. The report indicates that the average price for potash fertilizers in the third quarter of this year was $250 per ton, a stark contrast to the $633 per ton figure seen a year earlier. Tм Net potash sales amounted to $972 million, falling short of the estimated $1.03 billion. This represents a staggering 51.5% year-over-year decline in Nutrien's revenue. This situation is noteworthy for two key reasons. Firstly, it suggests that Belaruskali, a major player in the global potash fertilizer market, though not as significant as Nutrien, is facing significant financial losses. Sanctions and logistical challenges have forced Belaruskali to incur additional costs and reduce prices to remain competitive. Consequently, Belaruskali's net income is likely to have dropped to only 20-25% of its previous levels, casting doubt on the resilience claims made by Lukashenko and Golovaty for both Belaruskali and the overall economy, which has been under inept manual control for nearly 30 years. Secondly, this turn of events completely undermines the argument put forth by lobbyists supporting the easing of sanctions against Belaruskali. These lobbyists contend that the global shortage of potash fertilizers necessitates the lifting of sanctions. They claim that these shortages drive up fertilizer prices, which, in turn, impact food security by driving up prices and exacerbating hunger in African countries. However, the current market dynamics, where potash fertilizer prices are significantly lower than in previous years even without Belarus' participation, undermine this lobbying position. Consequently, we can draw the following conclusions: Sanctions are effective, and they should be maintained. Lukashenko's regime will continue to suffer losses due to the restrictions imposed by democratic nations. The pressure on the dictator and his system intensifies. This is further underscored by the audacious statement made by General Muraveiko, the First Deputy Secretary of State of the Security Council, who advocated for a "forced corridor" to Baltic ports. Advocates for lifting sanctions on potassium currently lack arguments to support their position that potassium prices are high, hindering the meeting of African countries' needs. The general decline in opportunities for selling Belarusian potash fertilizers on the global market, resulting from the sanctions imposed by the EU and the USA, is exacerbated by the record-low price of potash worldwide. The logistics of supplying Belarusian potassium through Russian ports and Russian Railways are not only limited due to Russia prioritizing its own interests in utilizing the infrastructure but also due to the high costs incurred by taking longer and more expensive routes, significantly eroding Belaruskali's profit margins. Therefore, it would be in Lukashenko's best interest to abandon attempts to ease sanctions and instead focus on fulfilling the demands voiced by Belarusian society as far back as 2020.











