If Belarusian potash fertilizers are completely squeezed out of the Chinese market, the Lukashenko regime could lose up to a billion dollars in export revenues. Until recently, regime officials told us that they were not afraid of sanctions on potash, thinking that China could replace the regime's entire exports to Europe. But China is a country that knows how to count money and plan for the long term. And in that perspective, the potential war criminal Lukashenko is hardly a reliable partner for China. And there were clear signs of this just the other day when it was revealed that Canadian potash sales company Canpotex had signed a six-month contract with the Chinese Potash Procurement Committee to supply potash at $307 per tonne. In a press release on Tuesday, Gordon Mackenzie, president and CEO of the Canadian company that sells fertilizer manufacturers Nutrien and Mosaic, said he hoped to continue reliable and stable potash supplies to Chinese customers. Apparently, supplies from Belaruskali proved to be unreliable and unstable and things are not as rosy as Lukashenka's propaganda is painting us. Under the new Sino-Canadian agreement, the potash price is USD 115 per tonne lower than the previous price record for the contract signed between Indian importers and Uralkali at the beginning of April this year. At that time, the contract price was USD 422 per tonne, which was already 28% lower than the global average price. Long-term agreements with India and China are generally seen as trendsetters for potash prices around the world because of their huge volumes. The news came as a surprise to many potash market players, including Lukashenko. Previously, it was thought that China might not resort to alternative supplies at all because of potash exports from Russia and Belarus. But, as it turns out, even China chooses Western partners and is not burning with the desire to expand cooperation with those who wage wars, violate nuclear non-proliferation agreements and interfere with Chinese trade with European countries. If Belarusian potash fertilizers are completely squeezed out of the Chinese market, the Lukashenko regime could lose up to a billion dollars in export revenues. China may be sending a clear signal to Lukashenko that it is time to stop the lawlessness he has created in the centre of Europe. The old, sick Lukashenko, who is fed up with everyone, would do well to retire and not interfere with the establishment of partnerships with Europe - both Belarus and China. Maybe the new China-Canada potash deal is just the beginning of a new joint strategy of the West and the East towards military aggressors and international security, including economic security? We shall see. The event could also be the end of lobbyists' attempts to get sanctions lifted on Belarusian potash through false narratives about the food security that the sanctions allegedly threaten. Lukashenko can go on and on about the importance of the economy at joint events of the CIS, the EEU and the Union State. But behind these words there is a gaping void that leads Belarus nowhere. Pavel Latushka, Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet, Head of the NAM

Original article: delo.si The UN Security Council elections are very important for the Belarusian regime of president Alexander Lukashenko in the context of Belarus' geopolitical isolation. Lukashenko needs a voice in the multilateral arena to promote his hypocritical pro-Russian political agenda, one of the Belarusian opposition leaders, Pavel Latushka, a former Belarusian diplomat and Minister of Culture who was sentenced to 18 years in prison in absentia, told Delo. In Slovenia, we have very little information on how Belarus campaigned for election to the UN Security Council. Slovenian diplomats and the top brass of the Foreign Ministry have made it clear that they do not perceive a Belarusian campaign on the ground, except in recent weeks, when Belarus has activated a campaign to smear Slovenia's candidacy. Pavel Latushka says that he has "absolutely never" heard [president] Lukashenko talk about Belarus' candidacy for the Security Council in the last year. "I know Foreign Minister Sergei Aleyinik well. He is not active, he has no influence in Lukashenko's structures. Therefore, the candidacy is not a priority on either the Belarusian domestic or foreign policy agenda. Moreover, we need to understand that the biggest concern of the Lukashenko regime is its own survival. They are mainly concerned with the question of how the regime will survive if Ukraine wins the war", explains the importance of the candidacy for the Belarusian regime. Who is behind the political agenda of the Belarusian dictator is clear: "Today, Lukashenko is completely dependent on Russian President Vladimir Putin. Under Lukashenko's rule, Belarus has lost its independence and sovereignty, which exists only nominally'. Belarus announced its candidacy as far back as 2007, and was the only candidate for the next 15 years after that. "Election to a non-permanent seat was seen in Belarus as a settled issue. But at the end of 2021, Slovenia decided to file a candidacy against Belarus. I strongly support Slovenia's candidacy", says the Belarusian dissident. Belarus is a bloody regime, according to him, represented by the dictator and long-time president of the country, Alexander Lukashenko. He has not been recognised as president of the country by the US, the EU and some other democratic countries because of fraudulent elections. The world understands what the Lukashenko regime is like. Who is behind the political agenda of the Belarusian dictator is clear: "Today, Lukashenko is totally dependent on Russian President Vladimir Putin. Under Lukashenko's rule, Belarus has lost its independence and sovereignty, which exists only nominally". Moreover, Alexander Lukashenko is an absolute ally of the Putin regime in the war against Ukraine. It is Putin, not Lukashenko, who has the most to gain from Belarus' candidacy for a non-permanent seat on the Security Council, Latushkf believes. Belarus' candidacy is also in China's interest. "Certainly Russia and China want Belarus on the Security Council, because it is a very loyal candidate for them." Latuško does not want to predict what the chances are that Russia and China, with their influence in the third world, will prevent Slovenia from being elected. In his opinion, a lot will depend on the international community if it allows another "terrorist and aggressor state that abuses international law" to join the Security Council. Belarus received only 56 votes when it stood for the Security Council in 2001. Unlike Slovenia, candidacy is not on the political agenda in Belarus. The Belarusian candidacy is most beneficial for Russia. Belarus wants to promote dialogue and transparency in the Security Council, and to pay attention to climate change and the fight against terrorism. "But really? A very interesting strategy for a dictatorial regime. Today, Lukashenko is promoting war. A week ago, he said that he regretted not occupying Ukraine in 2014, when the opportunity was there. The Lukashenko regime is allowing Russia to launch aggressive attacks on Ukraine from Belarus, to supply arms to Russia and to train Russian soldiers," Pavel Latushka criticises. In a joke alluding to Belarus' stolen elections, Latushka says that it is good for Slovenia that the Security Council elections will not be held in Belarus. He recalls that the last Belarusian candidacy in 2001 was not successful. Unlike this time, the previous campaign was extensive and intense, and Belarus ended up with 56 votes of support. "In 2023, the world understands that the Lukashenko regime is bloody and systematically violates human rights. Belarus ranks first in the number of political prisoners. We have 345 political prisoners per 100 000 inhabitants. We have the worst media freedom in Europe," concludes Latushka, who, as a former diplomat, supports Slovenia in its fight against Belarus.

Pavel Latushka for Notes from Poland, the VoiCEE podcast JUN 1, 2023 1. Can you tell us what has been happening in Belarus these past few weeks? This is what has been happening since 2020 – mass repression and torture, violation of human rights. Thus, only last week several university teachers were detained; 8 people in Lida were detained and forced to burn the national white-red-white flag; a doctor of science from Mahiliou, who analyzed the causes of the 2020 protests, was sentenced to 2 years; Eduard Babaryko, son of Viktar Babaryko, ex-presidential candidate, faces 20 years in jail; the head of a private school was given 3 years of restricted freedom. Ex-presidential candidate Viktar Babaryko was beaten by the guards of the colony and taken to the hospital, it is unknown whether he is alive now. We have torture in our country today. Lukashenko gave an order to toughen the attitude towards political prisoners. People make suicide attempts not to die, but to stop torture. Political prisoner Palina Sharenda-Panasiuk renounces her citizenship in protest against torture. There are officially more than 1,500 political prisoners in the country. In reality there are many more. We have not known anything for months about many political prisoners – Statkevich, Kalesnikava, are they even alive? The migration crisis continues, every day about 100 migrants try to cross the border illegally. And complicity in the war – Lukashenko confirmed the placement of nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus. Does anyone in the West see this? 2. Let’s talk a little about the recent deal with Moscow to deploy nuclear weapons. How serious is it? I have no doubt that these are serious statements. Let’s just look at it in retrospect: Lukashenko amended the constitution in February 2022, where Belarus lost its nuclear-free status. That means that the option of placing nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus was being considered at the time the constitutional amendments were made. In January 2022, the military doctrine of the so-called Union State was adopted, which also focused on nuclear weapons as a security guarantee for this union. Lukashenko himself had always dreamed of nuclear weapons and was very sorry that Belarus gave it away. He sees nuclear weapons for himself as a guarantee of his power. By the way, it’s the natural way of any dictator – dictators want to possess nuclear weapons because only nuclear weapons guarantee the most important thing for them – eternal power. But in this situation Lukashenko, unless of course there are any secret protocols in the treaty, finds himself in a very bad situation. He is no longer needed. 3. Who would ultimately control the launch capability? Could Belarus object or stop their use? If not, what does it mean for Belarus’ sovereignty? We do not have exact information, but according to Shoigu, the Kremlin will control these weapons, and therefore the Russian forces will most likely ensure the functioning and protection of the weapons. Accordingly, Lukashenko will not be able to use them on his own, much less to stop the use of nuclear weapons. Of course, he dreams to independently dispose of nuclear weapons and threaten the whole world, but at the moment these nuclear weapons are the last point in the way to destroy the sovereignty of Belarus. And this point was set by Lukashenko, who in order to keep his power and to leave for himself a phantom possibility of getting into the chair of the Kremlin, sold off the sovereignty of Belarus piece by piece. This imperial man has never been a guarantor of sovereignty, but a trader in favor of his political ambitions. 4. Can you tell us what the report by National Anti-Crisis Management is about? Main points: how many children were taken away, how old they were? National Anti-Crisis Management prepared a report titled “The Role of the Lukashenko Regime and the Union State of Belarus and Russia in the Illegal Transfer and Re-Education of Ukrainian Children”. This report provides evidence and legal grounds justifying reasonable grounds to believe that Lukashenko commits war crimes against Ukrainian civilians, specifically children, orphans. Today we may claim that starting September 2022 and until May 2023 at least 2150 children have been brought to Belarus, dozens of them are orphans and social orphans from Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine aged 6 to 15 years. How was the report created? The report was created by the National Anti-Crisis Management Team. During analyses of regime propaganda media, we found some news on the arrival of children from the occupied territories of Ukraine for rehabilitation to Belarus. In this news, it was openly spoken about orphans. In view of the arrest warrant against Putin, this information has attracted our attention. Our Law Unit said that if this information is true, it may amount to war crimes. So, we started to research. In the first stage, our research group collected indisputable evidence of transferring of Ukrainian orphans from occupied territories through Russia to Belarus. We received information from open sources and from specific individuals and organizations, including those from Belarus. In the second stage, our Unit of Law prepared a legal analysis of this evidence and came to the conclusion that there are reasonable grounds to believe that Lukashenko and a number of other top officials of Belarus and Russia are committing war crimes against Ukrainian children, orphans, by transferring them to Belarus from occupied territories of Ukraine. Our team has prepared a public version of the report and is currently finalizing a сclassified version containing sensitive information that will be shared with the Ukrainian side and the Office of the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court. 5. Do we know the personal stories of any of these children? We have the personal details of these children. We know their names, surnames, ages, places of living etc. However, it is our belief that such private information concerning children cannot be the subject of public discussion. It will be more correct if the relevant information is subsequently provided to the public by those to whom we pass this information (Ukrainian authorities, ICC). How the children were vetted to be taken out of Ukraine? What did their transport look like? What happened to them once they reached Belarus? Primarily these children were visited by the representative of a so-called Charity Foundation named after Alexei Talay, which reached an agreement with the local administrations of the orphanages on the conditions of transferring children to Belarus. Usually, the transfer is organized by buses from occupied territories to Rostov (South of Russia). Then these children are moved by train to Minsk. From Minsk, children are taken by bus to four camps: Dubrava (near Salihorsk, belonging to Belaruskali), Golden Sands (near Homel), Astrashytski Haradok (near Minsk), Zubryonak (near Myadel). In these camps, children are subjected to enhanced ideological re-education. Re-education is carried out by representatives of children's paramilitary organizations, the Russian Orthodox Church, as well as well-known propagandists of the Lukashenka regime. The main ideological narratives of the re-education programs are "denazification, demilitarization of Ukraine", "denial of the existence of the Ukrainian state and Ukrainian nation". Particularly, I would like to quote one of the propagandists who said to these children the following: “I wish that we live in peace, that Biden dies, Zelensky too, and Putin prospers and takes control of all Ukraine”. 6. What will the most immediate future look like for these children? Unfortunately, we cannot predict the future of these children. It is necessary to achieve their return to Ukraine. The prosecution of those responsible for crimes against these children is part of this work. Obviously, after such "rehabilitation" in the Belarusian camps, these children will need serious help and attention from real psychologists and doctors. 7. What should the EU do in the face of these findings? The European Union must keep sanctions against Belaruskali. What would lifting of the sanctions mean for the Belarusian government? The EU should maintain sanctions against Belarusian fertilizer producers, because lifting them would generate 1.5 billion dollars for the Lukashenko regime. According to Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis, the cost of the proposed package of new restrictions is estimated at 200 million euros, and the lifting sanctions will bring Lukashenko’s regime much more - 8 billion euros. Are there calls to lift the sanctions? If so, what are the arguments for it? Do you think they are justified? Yes, there are calls to lift the sanctions. The key argument of lobbyists is that the exit from the market of Belaruskali and other companies that extract and process potash from Belarus allegedly harms the global food market. However, the facts show otherwise. According to the UN, the average value of the world food price index has been falling, fertilizer prices are also falling. All fertilizers are now double digits lower compared to one year ago. Potash is 26% less expensive compared to a year prior. Although the Russian potash, which competes with the Belarusian one, is not under sanctions, its sale in the EU is limited by quotas. This does not allow Russia to either increase the output of its own products or help the Lukashenko regime to bypass sanctions by re-export the Belarusian potash. In addition, there is no shortage of potash fertilizers in the EU and other countries that joined the sanctions. In general, the EU’s dependence on Belarusian potassium is minimal: the EU used to depend on Belarusian potash for at most 5% of the consumption. The countries with low food security (African region) do not also face the lack of potash. At the moment, Belarus has no statistics on the export of fertilizers, so it's hard to say how things stand with the supply of Belarusian potash to Africa. But in 2020, Belarus earned only $123 million (5% Belarusian export) from the supply of potash fertilizers to the African countries. Minsk’s main clients were historically not food-insecure countries. Topping the charts in 2021, with over 35% of the share between them, were agricultural powerhouses Brazil and China, whose farm industries are geared toward breeding livestock and growing animal feed. Also, Canada is expanding its own mines and will churn out 4 to 6 million tons more potash each year by 2027. Nutrien, K+S and Mosaic — the companies that produce potash in Canada — have stepped up and increased production of potash. Canada-based miner Millennial Potash has recently acquired the Banio Potash Project in Gabon. With its large resource and control of a strategic location, Millennial Potash's acquisition of the Banio Potash Project could help provide a reliable source of potash for countries around the world, especially in the Southern Hemisphere. What can the EU countries neighbouring Belarus, Poland, Lithuania and Latvia, can do? They can block the border, that is, close the Belarus-EU freight traffic, including for transit cargo. In February Poland offered to launch a joint initiative with the European Commission to trace Ukrainian children who have been abducted and taken to Russia during the ongoing war in Ukraine. Have you been in touch with the Polish authorities regarding cases of Ukrainian children that have been taken to Belarus? We handed over our report to the Polish side. We are permanently in contact with the Polish side on this issue. 8. In recent weeks there were questions raised about the health of Lukashenko, what do we know about his health? Reports about Lukashenko's health condition cannot yet be verified, but let’s remember that he has had health problems before. We know from various sources that he has back problems, knee problems, overweight, diabetes, and that he takes medication. Even his appearance confirms this. We also know that Lukashenko has been very nervous lately; he has even increased his personal security. Lukashenko is afraid. He is afraid of doctors, because spinal surgery requires anesthesia, and he is afraid of whether he will wake up after this anesthesia. He is afraid of Belarusians, he is afraid of Ukraine. The Kremlin is ready that Lukashenko will no longer be able to rule the country. Putin is already thinking about two people who could replace Lukashenko. The first is Natalia Kachanava, head of the upper house of the Belarusian parliament, a Russian by birth. During her recent visit to Moscow she met with Lavrov. In my view, as a former ambassador and minister, this is an unprecedented situation. The second candidate is Alexander Volfovich, of Russian descent, secretary of the Security Council of Belarus, a graduate of the Moscow Higher School, the so-called “Kremlevka”. He is an agent of the Kremlin's influence in Belarus. We know, of course, that he has many friends among Russian generals and direct contacts with the Secretary of the Russian Security Council Patrushev, in the FSB, in the General Staff, in the Russian Defense Ministry. Generals in the Security Council support Lukashenko, but when Moscow gives an order, they can immediately carry out Moscow's orders. After all, Russia is the only country that has a strategy on what to do with Belarus. Unfortunately, our Western partners have no strategy. Is there an opportunity for the Belarusian opposition? With the understanding that in the case of the dictator's demise before Russia's defeat in the war, our common task will also be to actively resist Russia's attempt to "stabilize" the situation. But these are risks that we all have to be aware of in any case – whether Lukashenko will be alive at moment x (any trigger that will cause a powerful shock within the system, such as a successful counterattack by the Ukrainian army and the liberation of Ukrainian territory) or the moment x will be his demise. Russia will not let Belarus just go, unless the processes of dismantling of the federation begin within itself. However, it is impossible to count exclusively on such an outcome. We must all understand that we will have to fight for freedom and independence, as any other country and nation had to do in the history of the world. Belarusians want to be a free and independent nation and to have a free and independent state. Russia, in fact, denies our right to have such a state and to be an independent nation. And following the ideology of Racism it wants to turn us into Russians, they want to turn Belarus into a part of Russia and the "Russian world". Therefore, in any scenario, the question is this: whose desire and willingness to act accordingly will be stronger.

Speech by H.E. Pavel Latushka, Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus at Round-Table Conference on Baltic Sea Cooperation in Post-War Europe 2 June 2023 Warsaw Dear Chairman, All wars end. And this terrible war, the war waged by the Union State of Russia and Belarus against Ukraine will end. I believe I am convinced – it will end with the victory of Ukraine. With the full restoration of Ukraine's territorial integrity. The defeat of Rashism and the ideology of the "Russian world". The defeat of the so-called Union State. It is no coincidence that I mention this particular configuration and I will explain why a little later. The war will end. But whether peace and security will come to the region afterwards depends on how exactly this war will end. What will happen to the aggressors after Ukraine's victory? Whether they will retain the capacity to repeat their aggression in the future. I am sure you believe, as I do, that there is only one acceptable outcome: the victory of Ukraine, the aggressors, cannot be reversed and the conflict cannot resume, at least in the medium term. The shadow of war is disappearing from the region. And if we want this outcome – because only this outcome will allow us to talk about the prospects for secure development and democratic sustainability in Eastern Europe – we have two priority tasks ahead of us. And in fact, these tasks have been at least declared at the level of the EU, the US and their allies: Contribute to the unconditional victory of Ukraine; Help Belarusians to abolish the Lukashenko regime in Belarus. And these are two tasks that should not be carried out sequentially, but in parallel. Why? Remember the rhetoric heard during the war. What narratives are being constructed and what hopes are pinned on Ukraine‘s victory? In the eyes of today’s civilized world, Ukraine seems to be fighting not only for itself but for the whole of Europe, fighting for freedom, independence and democratic values worldwide. And Ukraine is fighting for Belarus. It is often said that after Ukraine's victory, according to many, will open a window of opportunity for the liberation and democratization of Belarus. But aren't we putting too much onto Ukraine? Yes, I am not saying that Ukraine is fighting against Russia on its own, that Ukraine has been thrown to the mercy of fate in this fight. Of course not. But should and can Ukraine be the solution to all problems? Maybe there is a problem very close to us which should be solved in parallel – and thus help Ukraine to win faster, and come to the security of the whole region faster? Let me put it straight – is it rational to put off solving the problem of Lukashenko's pro-Russian, and in fact Russian puppet regime in Belarus? A regime that is Russia's main ally and accomplice in the war against Ukraine. Which provides territory, infrastructure, firing ranges, ammunition, industrial facilities of the country to the Russian army and the Russian military-industrial complex. Helps it circumvent sanctions, helps it get weapons, helps it train the military, helps it keep waging war! Is it rational, logical and right to postpone this problem until Ukraine’s victory? Is it not obvious that by doing so, we are postponing this victory itself? And, unfortunately, we are postponing. The Russian ally, the Lukashenko's regime is actually forgotten by the West. Yes, it is remembered in declarations, resolutions, and tweets. But when it comes to real actions, where do all these declarations and resolutions turn out? They remain only on paper. And that means that the decisions, which are necessary to speed up the victory of Ukraine, to ensure security in the region, and to secure prospects for the democratization of Belarus and the existence of a free and independent Belarus in principle – these decisions remain only verbal. Today the only country which really has a strategy of actions with regard to Belarus is Russia. And this strategy is written down not in declarations and resolutions. But in concrete plans which are being implemented. This strategy is written down in the treaties, in the integration programmes of the Union State of Russia and Belarus, including its common Military Doctrine. The Union State project itself is Russia's strategy. The strategy of restoring the empire. Let us recall the recent words of Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev at the Eurasian Economic Forum in Moscow: "We have a Union State in the Eurasian Economic Union, a unique precedent, or phenomenon, as you like, in world political history – the creation of a state on the formula "two countries – one state" with a single political, legal, military, economic, currency, cultural and humanitarian space. With one union government, with one union parliament, I apologize, and even nuclear weapons are one for two now." At the words about nuclear weapons, Putin and Lukashenko shook hands happily, and Lukashenko said "thank you" to Putin. Lukashenko later commented that: "When talking about nuclear weapons – I couldn't really hear because of the acoustics – Vladimir Vladimirovich tells me: 'The decision has been made to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus'. I said: "Thank you". And the very next day the defense ministers of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus in Minsk signed documents on the deployment of nuclear weapons. This was something that Putin, Lukashenko and other Russian and Belarusian officials had said many times before. But for some reason, nobody wanted to take their words seriously. Well then, here is another quote from Lukashenko, said after the signing of those very documents: "The President of Russia informed me that today he signed a decree on our actions regarding the deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus. It was about a specific document. A decision was made in the development of what was said orally. We had to prepare storage sites and so on. We did that, so the relocation of nuclear warheads has already begun." At the very beginning of my speech, I focused specifically on the Union State of Russia and Belarus and promised to explain why. And here is why. On November 4, 2021, the so-called Supreme State Council of the Union State adopted the Military Doctrine of the Union State. A month after the adoption of the Military Doctrine, in December 2021, Putin and Lukashenko decided to hold a joint exercise – Union Resolve 2022. On January 18, 2022, at a briefing for foreign military attachés, Russian Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin said that the purpose of the exercise was to conduct an unscheduled inspection of troops and practice various options for joint actions to neutralize threats and stabilize the situation on the borders of the Union State. And it was under the guise of these exercises that four days after the end of them there was an invasion of the territory of Ukraine from the territory of... yes, the Union State. And all Lukashenko's further actions of complicity in the aggression against Ukraine are implemented within the framework of the Union State and its Military Doctrine. Just as the decision to deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus was taken on the basis of the decision to establish a regional grouping of troops on October 10, 2022, created, in turn, again on the basis of the Military Doctrine of the Union State of Russia and Belarus. Precisely so. Unfortunately, we do not have time today to delve into the documents – but all of them, including the mentioned Military Doctrine, are publicly available on the legal portal of the Union State. It is not difficult to draw conclusions and build a logical sequence after reading them. All it takes is the will. I'll just finish my thought. It is the Union State of Russia and Belarus that is responsible for unleashing the war against Ukraine in February 2022, for the war crimes perpetrated in the process and for creating a nuclear threat to the entire region today. One such war crime is the illegal deportation of children from the occupied territories of Ukraine. The role of the Union State in the organization of this crime is clearly outlined in the relevant report of the National Anti-Crisis Management, which we handed over to the Ukrainian side and other international partners. Should I recall that Alexander Lukashenko is the Chairman of the so-called Supreme State Council – the supreme governing body of the Union State? Yes. And I'm talking about it right now. I'm bringing it to your attention. And at the same time, I come back to the question – so does it really seem rational to anyone to put off solving the problem of the Lukashenko regime in Belarus? A regime that is exactly as much a part and cause of the global problem – the Union State war against Ukraine – as Russia is. Having said that, I hope the key challenges in relation to Russia in this room today are obvious to everyone. To weaken its armed forces to the point of incapacity to pose a threat and carry out aggression. Exhaust the Russian Federation financially through the harshest possible sanctions. Prosecute it criminally through a tribunal. And these tasks, maybe not as quickly as one would like, but they are being achieved. Now let's look at the Lukashenko regime. First, during the entire war in Belarus, permanent, daily, round-the-clock exercises of the armed forces at all training ranges and all branches of the armed forces take place. Let me remind you – the result of the pre-war exercises of the Union State in Belarus was the war. Second, for almost 12 months now, the European Union has not adopted any new package of sanctions against Lukashenko's regime, which allows both Lukashenko himself to stabilize the economy and allows Russia to circumvent the sanctions through Belarus and obtain everything it needs, including microelectronics, to continue the war. At the Eurasian Economic Forum, Lukashenko, speaking about industrial cooperation and import substitution within the framework of the Union State, openly said: "Have you noticed: this is the third year they are trying to bend us over? Well, it’s ok, practically everything flies, everything explodes and so on and so forth. So we can do something, and we are doing it already." Why do they have "everything that flies and explodes" – and this is obviously about missiles? Because the sanctions on the Lukashenko regime and Russia are simply still not harmonized. And third, no real, not declarative, steps have been taken to hold the Lukashenko regime criminally accountable – neither for crimes against Belarusians, nor for crimes against the EU, nor for war crimes against Ukraine. This is how irresponsibility breeds only more and more crimes. This is how the aggressor's irresponsibility continues the war. And yet, with regard to the Lukashenko regime, we see the exact opposite strategy as applied to Russia. Despite the fact that he is not just its key ally, who by real actions helps Russia in the war against Ukraine and commits war crimes together with the Russian Federation – but is an integral part of the Union State, which is leading this war. I understand that this is a new thesis for everyone. But the war against Ukraine is being waged not by Russia alone, but by the Union State of Russia and Belarus. In which Belarus is only because of Lukashenko's regime. Whereas, the Union State exists only because there is Belarus. And as long as the Lukashenko regime exists, this arrangement will not change. Therefore, if we seriously want to change it, we need to recall the words of former Estonian Foreign Minister Urmas Reinsalu, who said that the most powerful sanction the West can apply to Russia is the abolition of the Lukashenko regime in Belarus. After all, this is the only way we can bring about the collapse of the Union State that is right now waging a bloody war in the center of Europe. Without the possibility for Russia to use Belarus within the framework of the Union State, this war would not be possible in principle. Neither would Russia's threat to Poland, Lithuania or Latvia be possible. So the formula I am proposing to you today looks like this: Abolish the Lukashenko regime – abolish the Union State. Only in this way can we ensure the unconditional victory for Ukraine and the security for the whole region that we all want. And to answer the title question about the prospects for democratic change. Belarus has them – only if the Lukashenko regime is abolished and only outside the Union State with Russia. Otherwise – we have nothing to talk about. So where do you want to see Belarus tomorrow? In the Union State? Or in Europe? After all, the relationship between the West and Belarus has only two paths: Belarus as an enemy or Belarus as an ally. And right now, the West is at this fork. Belarus as an enemy is Belarus with Lukashenko, which means Belarus under Russia, Belarus as part of the Union State and other Russian integration projects, economic and military alliances with Russia. Belarus as an ally is a Belarus without Lukashenko, a democratic, independent, European Belarus, Belarus in the Baltic-Black Sea Union, Belarus in NATO. To follow the first path, it is enough for the West to continue having no strategy on Belarus, or to have an anti-strategy as I mentioned above. But if the West wants an ally, a strategy is needed. And this strategy cannot come from postponing the Lukashenko problem for later. No. The first point of this strategy must be the solution to this problem – the abolition of the Lukashenko regime in Belarus. The West is able to create such a strategy and has enough tools and resources, including resources of the Belarusian democratic forces and civil society, to implement it. But this requires a strong political will. So far, the only country that has a strategy for Belarus is Russia. And this strategy is based on the Union State. To free Belarus from Lukashenko's regime, to tear it away from the Union State with Russia, is to break that strategy, to strike at the heart of Russia's neo-imperialism. Yesterday I came back from Kyiv. I had to spend the night in bomb shelters and hear Russian ballistic missiles flying over Kyiv and exploding. And it was these missiles that were flying and exploding thanks to Lukashenko as he himself admits. Coincidentally, yesterday he said that Russia and Belarus made a mistake in 2014. Exactly when Ukraine had no army it should have been occupied – these are Lukashenko's exact words. So does someone really want to negotiate with him? Thank you for your attention.

In a conversation with Evroradio's editor Dmitry Lukashuk, a Ukrainian expert of the Center for Counteraction to Russian Aggression Dmitry Hromakov carelessly suggested that Svetlana Tikhanovska bring Haimars to Ukraine. Hromakov wanted to say: let's at least some joint projects of Belarusians and Ukrainians. Belarusian Twitter heard: and let your Tikhonovskaya not come without Haimars. We talked to Dmitry Gromakov about what Ukraine is expecting from the Belarusian opposition, what "Haimars" Latushko brought, and why Kiev wants to see Belarusian volunteers in the backbone of the future army of Belarus. "A patchwork quilt of evidence is his Haimars." — More than a month ago, the Ukrainian expert community and a representative of the Council met with the Belarusian opposition in Warsaw. Has there been a development of this meeting? — Not yet. But there are many common topics for cooperation. And we are ready to talk about it. But so far, contacts end with verbal support. Like, "we'll be fine, if you win. The Ukrainian side does not take it seriously. But if there is a concrete topic, you can go to Ukraine with it. Yes though you can come with a sack of potatoes, not "Hymars," and give that sack to a particular orphanage. That would be dialogue. A dialogue not about words. A dialogue about what you are doing to win Ukraine beyond what you sympathize with from Warsaw and Prague. Sympathy is good, but let's find something to do together. This is the second time we've met with [Aleksandr] Azarov, and he says, "Everything is coded and closed. Well, let's figure something out so that you can open something up and we can start doing something together. I understand: secret people carry out secret plans. Okay. But even this activity must have some public product. Of course, it is impossible to show the people involved in carrying out these activities, but a form of communication must be found. Nevertheless, this activity is already in its third year. After all, the most important thing in a joint activity is that through it we learn about each other. Let's find out who has what motives and who is striving for what. So far there is no ground for dialogue. While we only discuss how not to begin to hate one another. But we cannot begin to hate each other in different ways: we can just shut up and forget about each other. That's what's so special about [Pavel] Latushka? He got the topic right [Latushka gave Ukraine evidence of Ukrainian children being taken to Belarus]. Because it's a common story. — Does this mean that Ukraine noticed Latushka's move? — Well, of course I noticed. If we have the resource to develop the story regionally, why give it up? We certainly won't get there now. We don't have that close a diplomatic relationship. If you have those capabilities, of course we want to cooperate. It's the same with the regiment: they are fighting with us. The question for the rest [of the Belarusian politicians]: what are you doing? "Do you want to govern us? "No, we want to work with you." — In our last interview you said that Belarusian volunteers in Ukraine are not "our" people, they are "your" people. Does Ukraine see volunteers as the backbone of a potential new Belarusian army? — Yes. The question of replacing the personnel of the Belarusian army is interesting. Who will form the officer staff of your army after victory of the revolution? Will the Belarusian army remain the successor of the Soviet one, or will it have hardened cadres who have been through combat operations, integrated and able to work within the big international system? Will the Belarusians be able to retain this cadre potential and will they appreciate it? It is beneficial, including for our security. These are the people who fought with us, who know what they fought for. We will certainly never be enemies to them, even with all the domestic political history. — Dmitry, do you personally have something in common with Belarus, or it's a completely different story? — It's a different story, but I've been dealing with this subject for a long time, so it becomes close and understandable. And I understand that this history is important. It's important for understanding the future, for understanding how and with whom to build that future. When everyone begins to accuse us, saying that Ukraine has no policy towards Belarus and the Belarusians, I wonder: are the Belarusians ready to accept our policy towards them? After the meeting in Warsaw, many [Belarusian politicians] said: why are you coming to us? Do you want to lead us? No, we want to work with you. And to understand what to expect from you tomorrow and the day after tomorrow. What to expect from [Alexander] Lukashenko is unclear, what's in his head is unclear. And you are so dependent on him that you start reproducing his models of management and behavior. And we understand that changing one Lukashenko for another is not our way. We need more. We need a clear and precise system. So that we understand on what principles it works, how the next people will be chosen. We do not want to get one more Lukashenko, I think, neither do the people of Belarus. Original article: euroradio.fm

Pavel Latushka participated in a meeting of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus During the meeting with Lithuanian Deputy Foreign Minister Mantas Adomenas: discussed increasing pressure on the Lukashenko regime under universal criminal jurisdiction, criminal investigations into the forced landing of the Ryanair plane and hybrid warfare using illegal migrants. Pavel Latushka noted that the above-mentioned tools of pressure are at the disposal of the Lithuanian prosecutor's office, as well as other countries. And the responsibility for the crimes must come; agreed to analyze the effectiveness of economic sanctions and ways to circumvent them used by the regime; Pavel Latushka informed on the actions of the Belarusian democracies to support Ukraine's struggle for its independence and territorial integrity. During the meeting with the diplomats of the Belarusian political section of the US Embassy: Discussed in detail the tools the U.S. can use to pressure and hold accountable representatives of the Lukashenko regime. During the meeting of the Transitional Cabinet representatives Pavel Latushka and Aliaksandr Azarau with Lithuanian deputy of the European Parliament Petras Auštrevičius and former chair of the Constitutional Court of Lithuania Dainius Žalimas they agreed on: Interaction to increase pressure on the regime. In the nearest future, in the interests of a citizen of Belarus, an application will be filed to the Lithuanian prosecutor's office against the Belarusian judge who rendered an unlawful politically motivated sentence, in order to create a precedent for bringing all judges outside Belarus who render political judgments to justice; cooperating within PACE to establish an international tribunal for crimes against humanity; the use of the legal mechanisms of the European Parliament to expand the personal lists of perpetrators of mass repressions in Belarus.

"On demanding the Russian Federation to unconditionally withdraw troops from the territory of the Republic of Belarus" In view of: the direct threat posed by the actions by the illegal regime to involve the Republic of Belarus in the war, loss of independence and territorial integrity of the Republic of Belarus due to its participation in union agreements on cooperation, signed in violation of democratic procedures and after the anti-constitutional coup of 1996, which also became a mechanism for supporting the authoritarian system in the Republic of Belarus for 28 years and contributed to the forceful retention of power by Lukashenka in 2020, contrary to the will of the Belarusian people; the use by the Russian Federation of controlled international organizations and unions for its political, economic and cultural expansion to neighboring countries; the gross violation by the Russian Federation of all international agreements and norms of international law in its aggressive war against Ukraine; the continuation of the Russian Federation’s escalation of military aggression against Ukraine due to the signing of the decree "On the announcement of partial mobilization in the Russian Federation" dated September 21, 2022. The United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus: Demands the Russian Federation to unconditionally, immediately and fully withdraw all its troops and military facilities from the territory of the Republic of Belarus. Considers invalid the bilateral agreements between the Republic of Belarus and the Russian Federation, which threaten the sovereignty, independence and national security of the Republic of Belarus. Stresses the need for the Republic of Belarus to withdraw from the military, political and economic alliance with the Russian Federation and build a new regional security system in partnership with states that recognize and respect the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Republic of Belarus and the Belarusian national identity. Appeals to the international community — the United Nations, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, the Council of Europe, the European Union, the United States of America, the United Kingdom, Canada and other states and international organizations — with a call to support its stated policy of ensuring independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Republic of Belarus by comprehensive practical measures in cooperation with the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus. Pledges its commitment to achieve de-occupation of the Republic of Belarus by all available means based on the norms and principles of international law. 09/21/2022 Vilnius, Warsaw, Tallinn

Pavel Latushka, a representative of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, held meetings with the new heads and diplomats of the political sections of the U.S. embassies in Vilnius and Warsaw. The main issues discussed during the meetings were: Lukashenko's role in the war against Ukraine; the dictator's dependence on the Kremlin; international criminal liability of Lukashenko and his accomplices for repression and aiding and abetting war crimes; the priorities of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus. Pavel Latushka emphasized during the meetings that any negotiations with the regime can only be held with the participation of the democratic forces of Belarus, which stand up for the key demands of the Belarusian people: withdrawal of Russian troops; cessation of repressions; release of all political prisoners; holding new elections.

NAM head Pavel Latushka spoke about the dictators' plans in an interview with German social media Deutsche Welle, RND, N-TV and Ad Hoc News The main theses of the interview: Putin's goal is to increase the number of Russian troops in Belarus. The process must be completed by next spring, after which the Russian Supreme Court may again attempt to invade Kiev with Lukashenko's help. Even if it is not possible to form a large grouping and/or move troops into Ukraine, Putin's calculation is clear: withdraw to the north some of the USS forces that are successfully advancing in northeastern and southern Ukraine. The formal and propaganda justification for these actions is the allied arrangements between Moscow and Minsk, which provides for the formation of a joint grouping of troops in case the two countries are threatened. The other day, the formation of the group was announced, as well as - sporadically and inappropriately - the threat: allegedly plans to attack Ukraine, and NATO countries (Poland and Lithuania) to occupy Belarus. Belarusians are peaceful people and do not want to go to war with Ukrainians. But Putin will continue to use our country as a springboard for his criminal aggression. Lukashenko is completely in his power, and he will not be able to say "no" to him, so he fits the political role of the "useful idiot" of the Kremlin.

1. Is this a ratcheting up of tensions or a serious threat of use? "I am convinced that Putin and Lukashenko have signed a secret protocol on how to use nuclear weapons." H.E.Pavel Latushka Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management 26_05_2023 An audio interview with Pavel Latushka forbbc.co.uk Putin and Lukashenko have decided to deploy nuclear missiles on the territory of Belarus in order to threaten to use them or possibly to ensure its use. When Ukraine de-occupies its territories and we wish it to Ukraine for the nearest future, for example, approaches the borders of Crimea, a single strike with nuclear tactical weapons could be launched from the territory of Belarus. The goal of these two guys is to demotivate European Western society and discourage further support for Ukraine. And of course, NATO members will meet at headquarters in Brussels to consider the question of strike back. The first question will be whether to strike back at Russia. But, there will be objections as this strike was launched from the territory of Belarus. The second question will be: "Then is it necessary to strike on the territory of Belarus? But the answer will follow in Brussels, why on the territory of Belarus as it is the Russian nuclear weapon? And unfortunately, I am inclined to think that there will be no decision and there will be no retaliatory strike, exactly what Putin and Lukashenko are counting on. But because Lukashenko wants to secure himself Lukashenko places tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus. As the next step, we will find out in a few months, maybe in a year, that strategic nuclear weapons will appear on the territory of Belarus. 2. Who would ultimately controls the launch capability... Could Belarus object or stop their use? I am convinced that Putin and Lukashenko have signed a secret protocol on how to use nuclear weapons, which is already on the territory of Belarus. Lukashenko has publicly stated earlier that he will take part in the decision on the use of nuclear weapons deployed on the territory of Belarus, and he will never give it up. That is why the secret protocol is signed and there is supposed to be a mutual decision. Nobody will publish this protocol, because it is a direct violation of international law. 3. When will this happen? We must understand that Lukashenko is Putin's only ally. He started the war with him, he provided the territories of Belarus and the most powerful attack in the direction of Kyiv was delivered from the territory of Belarus. But the West still does not understand Lukashenko's role. Lukashenko is not resisting Putin, Lukashenko wants to do what Putin is telling him to do, and this is his strategy. Today a country in Europe - Belarus - is disappearing right here, before our eyes. The West is silent. We persuade you [the West] to impose sanctions in order to protect you and you don't apply them. We persuade you [the West] to bring Lukashenko to justice, to bring Putin's puppet to justice and you do not do it. How long are we going to convince you to deal with your security? As a result, we have lost time, today nuclear weapons are in Belarus and a European country is disappearing before our eyes, Belarus is disappearing. I have nothing more to say…

From an interview with Pavel Latushko in a Polish publication Onet.pl In an interview — in the tradition of Polish media interviews are often filmed right in the car on the way to work — Pavel Latushka opined that Lukashenko is very much afraid of a Ukrainian counterattack. That is why he has recently been reluctant to transfer ammunition, weapons, and missiles to Russia. "He foresees a situation where, after the Ukrainian counter-offensive, the war could end on the territory of Belarus. Then he may not have enough money for the war," says the politician. Latushko notes that this topic can only be discussed theoretically, and stresses that no one wants war in the territory of Belarus. At the same time, soldiers of Kalinowsky regiment keep saying that they will liberate Belarus. He reminds that Lukashenko gave up the territory of Belarus for aggression against Ukraine. And this is a crime. It is clear that this was agreed with Putin before the war. Therefore, it is a joint war between Lukashenko and Putin. The politician wonders how to end the war, how to hasten the victory of Ukraine. And he gives his answer: "The harshest sanction that can be applied to Russia is the liquidation of the Lukashenko regime. The fact that Lukashenko is not under the scrutiny of the West is a huge strategic mistake." Latushka stresses that no one has a strategy on what to do with Lukashenko, except for one country — and that country is called the Russian Federation. The politician notes the erroneous opinion of European politicians that they "should not put pressure on Lukashenko, because otherwise it will bring him closer to Russia. "Putin hasn't taken Belarus just because he doesn't want to yet. If he wants to, he will. And Lukashenko's role in this is zero," Latushka suggests. According to Latushko, the West has the tools, but it does not want to use them to support the democratic forces of Belarus. "We may have high expectations. But in my opinion, rather, the West has an understated desire to use the existing tools. It is necessary to recognize Tihanovskaya as the leader of Belarus and the Transitional Cabinet as the government of Belarus." Latuszka mentions how he met with the foreign ministers of seven European countries in Poland on September 2, 2020. According to him, then they said: "We will not impose sanctions against Lukashenko. Maybe we can still come to an agreement. "And it seems that all 30 years of Lukashenko's reign everyone thinks this movie can be revisited. And again they make the same mistakes". — notes the politician and emphasizes: "Strong, sensitive sanctions. Only sanctions that lead to an economic shock. Punishment of criminals. Pavel Latushka notes that the West has a strategy toward Russia. It is aimed at weakening the army, restricting finance and criminalization of Putin and his associates. But what is the strategy with regard to Belarus? "As for Lukashenko, the European Union has not imposed any new sanctions over the past year. Is it possible to pursue one strategy against Russia and another against Belarus at the same time, if we actually have a joint union of the two countries? Today, the biggest threat to Belarus' independence is the Lukashenko regime, which is doing everything to draw Belarus into the embrace of Russia," Lutashko suggests. The politician notes that Putin wanted to occupy Ukraine by military means, and Belarus by non-military, evolutionary way. And this scenario is being implemented. "He wanted to eat the main dish - Ukraine - but he couldn't. Got it in my teeth. Now he's aiming for dessert. And he will eat that dessert. It will be Belarus. And the strategy of not having any plans for Lukashenko is a big mistake. After all, Russia will be in Belarus tomorrow. The only question is whether Putin wants Belarus to be a member of the UN with its flag and vote or not. But before the elections he will have to show the Russians that he has achieved something". In his reasoning, Latushka mentioned Putin's words to German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on February 15, 2022: "Neither Ukraine nor Belarus should exist." "And what does the West do? Nothing. He is waiting for Putin to implement it," the Belarusian politician suggests. Latushka also recalled that repression continues in Belarus, detentions are constantly taking place and the number of political prisoners is growing. The level of repressions is the most significant for the last 50 years in Europe. And at the same time, a debate is unfolding in Brussels on whether to impose sanctions against Lukashenko. "One European country is proposing to lift sanctions on potash fertilizers. They affect the largest enterprise on which Lukashenko illegally makes money. And why do it? Because there is a famine in the world. But that's not true. The U.N. reported that there is no increase in the price of consumer goods when it comes to prices in dollars or euros. Second. Our fertilizers have never been sold in Africa. Thirdly, the enterprise "Belaruskali" finances the illegal deportation of children from Ukraine. This is a war crime. But some of our partners offer to lift the sanctions and let Lukashenko make money. What would Lukashenko make money on? For ammunition, exercises of the Russian troops, construction of new penitentiary institutions, torture of political prisoners," Latushka reasoned. The interview also touched upon the connection of the victory of Ukraine in the war with the changes in Belarus. The politician says that the victory of Ukraine will be a motivation for the Belarusian community. If Putin is weak in this situation, unable to effectively manage the army and send a large number of Russian troops to the territory of Belarus to suppress protests, then there is a chance to change the government. If the Ukrainian victory does not lead to any political problems in Moscow, in this case the situation looks complicated. Original article: nashaniva.com

The head of the NAM and Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet Pavel Latushka shared with "Nasha Niva" his thoughts and information about the prospects of sending the Belarusian military to war in Ukraine The policy-maker believes that the Russians have a task to create a common army of the so-called Union State. "The preparation for creation has been going on not for far from the first day. The creation of such an army is another invitation for our state. Actually, there is a gradual annexation of Belarus. Actions are being taken to eliminate our independence and sovereignty," says the head of the NAM. Speaking about the role of the Belarusian army in this war, Pavel Latushka believes that the Belarusian army is primarily assigned the role of rearward, which they arrange not only on the territory of Belarus, but also in the occupied parts of Ukraine. "We have information that the military of one of the military units from near Minsk were sent to the occupied part of the territory of Ukraine, where they are engaged in mechanical material maintenance. They are located in 50 kilometers from the contact line of Ukrainian and Russian troops in the Donbas. First of all, they are motivated by money," Pavel Latushka told to "NN". Pavel Latushka believes that the main reason why Lukashenko has not yet decided to fully enter the war with Ukraine is the mood among the military. "We have information that the military of one of the military units from near Minsk were sent to the occupied part of the territory of Ukraine, where they are engaged in mechanical material maintenance. They are located in 50 kilometers from the contact line of Ukrainian and Russian troops in the Donbas. First of all, they are motivated by money," Pavel Latushka told to "NN". Pavel Latushka believes that the main reason why Lukashenko has not yet decided to fully enter the war with Ukraine is the mood among the military. Source information from different law enforcement agencies clearly demonstrates that the mood in the Belarusian army is not the same. And even in the ranks of the top leadership of the power unit and the Ministry of Defense. There is evidence that a significant part of the Belarusian army and officers definitely do not want to fight, that’s why Lukashenko is starting to use increasingly aggressive outreach," the politician shares. Original article on the Nashaniva website