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«We mustn't let them intimidate us into a state where we'll be ready to give up our future» Pavel Latushka, head of the NAM, explains how the regime uses all available instruments to force the Belarusians not to go to the polling stations during the «referendum»: We see more and more reports of repression, we see that propaganda relentlessly vilifies Belarusians who want change. The regime is trying with all its might to intimidate us before the «referendum». After the elections 2020, the regime has for the first time encountered the problem of forming commissions: people refuse to participate under any pretext. Each of us decides what will happen to the country next. Each of us can speed up the return of freedom and law to the country through our own actions. We will go to the polls in the «referendum», we will put a cross against every option on the ballot — that is, we will make the ballots invalid. It will be our common contribution to the future of the New Belarus. The crosses in the ballots are only part of Lukashenka's «referendum» action plan. Common action will help us see each other again and move together en masse to the next steps. We will reveal further details of the plan closer to the day of the «referendum».

Remembering examples from history We have already said that the refusal of the Belarusians to participate in the political life of the country is a guarantee of a peaceful life for the regime. But are there any cases where the boycott of the elections led to positive developments? In 2010, the Brookings Institution published a study that analyzed 171 boycotts. In 96% of cases, this not only did not help to resolve the crisis within the country, but also strengthened the position of the current government. Here are some examples from history when opponents of the system called for a boycott, and remember what this led to. (spoiler: nothing good). We specially selected countries with a similar political situation: authoritarian or hybrid regimes, where the regime was accused of electoral fraud. Venezuela 2020 In December 2020, major opposition leaders, including Juan Guaido, called for a boycott of the parliamentary elections. However, this decision made only President Maduro happy. The official turnout was only 31%, mainly supporters of the authorities came to the polling stations and they did not even have to falsify the results: the pro-presidential alliance won the majority of votes, and the opposition lost control over parliament. Azerbaijan 2008 On the eve of the 2008 presidential elections in Azerbaijan, the main opposition bloc decided to boycott the campaign — the authorities exhaled and calmed down. Technical candidates competed with Ilham Aliyev, and the local CEC reported on a «confident victory» — according to official data, Ilham Aliyev gained 88.73%. Due to the fact that the opposition did not participate in the elections, they passed relatively calmly. This made it possible to show a beautiful picture for international observers and foreign partners, and create the illusion of large-scale popular support. Albania 2019 In 2019, opposition forces in Albania accused the ruling party of economic problems and impending fraud and announced that they would boycott municipal elections. Unsurprisingly, representatives of the ruling Socialist Party ultimately triumphed across the country. They did not even have to manipulate the results: after all, the opposition did not nominate its candidates and the elections turned out, in fact, uncontested. Jamaica 1983 Parliamentary elections in Jamaica in 1983 are one of the most striking examples of a failed boycott. The main opposition party has called on its supporters to refuse to vote. The appeal worked and the turnout was only 2.7%. Despite the empty lots, the elections took place anyway. Representatives of the ruling Labor Party eventually took all the vacant seats in parliament and held power for another 6 years. Togo 2002 In Togo, the opposition «Union Forces for Change» party disagreed with electoral legislation and called for the 2002 elections to be ignored. This did not prevent the pro-government party from getting 90% of the seats in parliament, because only its supporters came to the polls. The apathy of political opponents allowed the regime to take advantage of the majority and lift restrictions on the number of presidential terms, and President Gnassing-be Eyadema was able to push through amendments to the law to facilitate the transfer of power to his son. And if it seems to you that it is strange to compare Togo and Belarus, then here are some statistics. In the ranking of the level of development of democracy for 2020, this state of West Africa has overtaken our country by 7 points. The Togolese Republic occupies the 141st place, and Belarus — 148th.

"The classification of crimes against humanity as crimes under international law makes them crimes regardless of their criminalization in national law", reminds Victoria Fedorova of the International Committee for the Investigation of Torture in Belarus. And for those who doubt that the Lukashenka regime is committing nothing less than crimes against the whole society, here are some of her quotes summarizing the situation in the country: The scale of violence, rights violations, persecution, torture, and other illegal actions is unprecedented in the history of modern Belarus. The disappearances of the regime’s opponents in 1999−2000 demonstrate that the regime was originally aimed at liquidating its opponents. Persecution of dissenters is organized, regular and systematic. There is a policy of eliminating all dissent at all levels. Lukashenka and Karaev publicly approve of torture and repression, and declare war on civilians. Law enforcers are given to understand that protesters can be treated as they please. Lukashenka confirmed that he personally gave orders to disperse protesters and break into apartments. The Defense Ministry and the Emergencies Ministry, along with the law enforcement agencies, expressed their readiness to carry out his criminal orders. The military joined in the intimidation of people. The parliament passed a series of laws to suppress dissent and expand the powers of the security and law enforcement agencies. The IC has turned into a punitive body. The Ministry of Information is directly involved in destroying independent media, and state media incite hatred and hostility on political and ethnic grounds. The Ministry of Justice has revoked the licenses of lawyers involved in political cases and has been involved in the smashing of civic organizations. Courts have become part of the repressive mechanism, and the imitation of the judicial process instills in power and other structures confidence in their correctness and impunity. At the same time national, constitutional and international norms are violated. The prosecutor’s office has completely abandoned its supervisory functions and is now on a par with other repressive bodies. To read Victoria Fedorova’s presentation at the NAM Legal Conference in Nuremberg in full, click here.

On the eve of the Eastern Partnership Summit, the first expert discussion "Belarus in cooperation with the European Sub-regional Organisations, Neighborhood Groups and Programs" was held as part of the Expert Environment discussions "Expert Environment" is a series of discussions with the participation of Belarusian and foreign experts, analysts, authors of studies and specialists in the field of foreign policy, organized by the National Anti-Crisis Management to discuss the geopolitical choice of the Belarusian people. Having stolen the votes, rights and freedoms of Belarusians in 2020, Lukashenka also stole from us the right to build a competent policy of good neighborliness, taking into account the national interests of Belarus. The geopolitical choice today is determined exclusively by the Lukashenka’s regime. Excluding the people — the bearer of sovereignty — from participation in solving key issues of foreign policy, Lukashenka uncontrollably bargains with our sovereignty and puts it on the line in his political games. In conditions when the "international relations" of the regime create a real threat of the loss of sovereignty and independence by Belarus, the issue of citizens' understanding of geopolitical processes is critically important. The Expert Environment discussion series is intended to build this understanding. Within the framework of the first discussion "Belarus in cooperation with European sub-regional organisations, groups and good-neighborliness programs", experts and analysts, authors of studies and specialists in the field of foreign policy discussed the following issues: — What is the Eastern Partnership and what bonuses did the participation in it bring to Belarus? — What amount of funding are we talking about when mentioning Eastern Partnership projects? — What is the likelihood of dismantling the Belarusian statehood? Briefly: The Eastern Partnership is a geopolitical response to Russia’s external activity. 750 million euros within the framework of various projects of the Eastern Partnership is a lot of money. Loans on good terms were also of great importance, reaching an average of 500 million euros per year. The degree of confrontation between the West and the Kremlin will not diminish. As long as Lukashenka is in power and is supported by Putin, there is a real threat of the dismantling of the Belarusian statehood. Russian subsidies are used to maintain an ineffective economic model, which has created a kind of vicious circle for Belarus. After Lukashenka leaves, the new government of Belarus will have to rebuild a dialogue with the West, including within the framework of the Eastern Partnership. More details: What is the Eastern Partnership and what bonuses did the participation in it bring to Belarus? Andrey Egorov, Representative of the Coordination Council for Civil Society, Director of the Center for European Transformation: The Eastern Partnership, in many ways, was the EU’s response to Russia’s aggressive policy in the region. This initiative has promoted and continues to promote profound transformations in the EU’s eastern neighboring countries and brought significant benefits for Belarus as well. Belarus and Azerbaijan were outsiders of the program, which was the result of the choice of their political regimes. Although, it is noteworthy that even with this level of relations, financial and infrastructural assistance from the Eastern Partnership was tangible for Belarus. It is noteworthy that the infrastructure assistance from the Eastern Partnership was indeed very important. For example, the road infrastructure financing program, which includes financing of bridge repairs, showed that its termination led to the so-called "Bridgefall". The economic framework for cooperation is set within the political framework of the Eastern Partnership. How much funding are we talking about when talking about Eastern Partnership projects? Andrey Kazakevich, Director of the Institute of Political Research "Political Sphere", Editor-in-chief of the journals "Political Sphere" and "Belarusian Political Science Review": 750 million euros within the framework of various Eastern Partnership projects that the Belarusian economy received is a lot of money. Loans on good terms were also of great importance. According to various estimates, they reached an average of 500 million euros per year. Following the "bridgefall", we will face problems with the water supply infrastructure of the cities. Funds for the development of small businesses, most likely, will also not go to Belarusian entrepreneurs. Separately, it should be noted that the Belarusian science will suffer as a priority. Will Belarusian statehood be dismantled? Pavel Usov, Political analyst and columnist, Head of the Center for Political Analysis and Forecast: It is extremely important for the democratic forces to create a clear plan for the geopolitical choice for Belarus. The Eastern Partnership in the form in which it exists now does not meet the challenges of the times. Russia is pouring a lot of money into its imperial geopolitical projects: in the Donbass, for example, about $ 12 billion. The degree of confrontation between the West and the Kremlin will not weaken, as evidenced by Moscow’s actual ultimatum on the inadmissibility of NATO expansion. While Lukashenka is in power and is supported by Putin, the dismantling of the Belarusian statehood may take place, unfortunately, in practice it is already happening. Is infrastructure assistance within the framework of the Eastern Partnership comparable to Russian energy subsidies? Dmitry Bolkunets, Political scientist, expert in the field of Russian-Belarusian relations The Eastern Partnership for Belarus, in my opinion, is still more a political track than an economic one. Russian subsidies are used to maintain an ineffective economic model, which has created a kind of vicious circle for Belarus. And these subsidies, in my personal opinion, significantly exceed the financial resources allocated within the framework of the Eastern Partnership projects. It seems to me that it is generally beneficial for Russia when some infrastructure projects are financed by the West. The example of Armenia confirms this. Despite the current situation, Europe already has an instrument to support the Belarusian society within the framework of the Eastern Partnership. These are educational programs. In fact, it turns out that the Russian economic model conflicts with the model proposed by the Eastern Partnership not only politically, but also economically? Andrey Kazakevich: in principle, with a strong desire, these models can also be combined, but for this it is necessary to work. And take into account the fact that in democratic countries, at the stroke of a pen, no changes are made to the regulatory framework. Different way of thinking of Belarusian officials does not allow them to understand that it is necessary to work within the framework of procedures in order to combine the models. How real is the threat of Belarus' incorporation in the foreseeable future? Kamil Klysinski, Senior Research Fellow, Center for Oriental Studies (OSW) After Lukashenka leaves, the new government of Belarus will have to rebuild a dialogue with the West, including within the framework of the Eastern Partnership. Today, in my opinion, Russia, oddly enough, is trying to economize on its foreign policy projects, even it is a little greedy. It follows from this that the incorporation or annexation of Belarus is impossible, since it would be too expensive for Russia. The question also arises: what will happen to Lukashenka if Russia needs a thaw in relations with the West? Lukashenka, who is not welcome to shake hands, will greatly interfere with this process. Next discussion of the Expert Environment: "Integration processes within the Eurasian Economic Union and the Commonwealth of Independent States. Prospects for the development of Belarusian-Russian relations"

Every political prisoner is a shame for the Lukashenka regime, but our pride! — Sergei Tikhanovsky said: I will be in prison for as long as the Belarusian people allow me. I, Pavel Latushka, a citizen of Belarus, will not allow Sergei Tikhanovsky, Nikolai Statkevich, Igor Losik and everyone who heard the verdict of the so-called court today and all those who are already in Belarusian prisons stay there as long as the regime wants. I will resist and resist this as much as I have the strength and energy. — I call on all Belarusians in February, when Lukashenko calls his "referendum", to go to the polls and vote against this crime, to show that we are strong and we will not allow Sergei Tikhanovsky, Nikolai Statkevich, Igor Losik, Viktor Babariko, Maria Kolesnikova, Maxim Znak and other worthy, courageous Belarusians were imprisoned. All in our hands! — Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, Marina Adamovich, Daria Losik, families and friends of political prisoners — we are with you! Every political prisoner is a shame for the Lukashenka regime, but our pride! And our pride cannot be broken. Our will to freedom cannot be taken away. We will fight. Belarus and Belarusians will be free!

Pavel Latushka answers popular questions about the action plan What question will they actually ask us in the "referendum"? What if we just ignore the "referendum"? Will it help? Will the actions of the citizens of Belarus in the "referendum" be recorded in any way? We have already documented fraud in the 2020 elections. Why repeat yourself? Why is a "referendum" now impossible in Belarus in principle? The answers to these and other popular questions about the "referendum" and the strategy of the democratic forces for it are in the new video of the head of the NAM Pavel Latushka.

"Probably, soon they will punish only for the fact that you were born into this world and allowed yourself to criticize Lukashenka" Head of the NAM Pavel Latushka — about another criminal case initiated against him — First of all, I would like to wish all of us that we as soon as possible initiate criminal proceedings against real criminals — Lukashenka and his accomplices, who commit real, not fictional, criminal acts. — The new case is a response to the team of the National Anti-Crisis Management and to me personally for the principled position and persistence in the need to bring the Lukashenka regime to justice. And this responsibility will come inevitably. — In 2012, the National Film Studio "Belarusfilm" received an award for the first time at the world’s most prestigious international Cannes Film Festival for the film "In the Fog" by Vasil Bykov. And I remember how much effort the Lukashenka administration made to make me refuse to shoot this film. — This is the Stalinist regime, the Stalinist times that came in our country. But such actions of the General’s Office prosecutor in no way demotivate me. On the contrary, they motivate me to fight. And I spoke about this yesterday in Brussels. And I will speak with all politicians, as well as the UNESCO leadership about the massive repressions against the figures of Belarusian culture — crimes against the Belarusian people must be punished. — I believe in Belarusians and I am sure that we will win. Long live Belarus!

What does it mean? What happened? The illegitimate authorities of Belarus have appointed a new head of the Central Election Commission. Instead of Lydia Yermoshina, the position was taken by Igor Karpenko, a former Minister of Education. Citizen Lukashenko also appointed five CEC members, two of whom were also in the previous composition. Does it change anything? No, falsifications will continue with the new CEC. Moreover, Igor Karpenko has experience: he was probably involved in the elections for the post of deputy head of the Minsk City Executive Committee, he was also involved in the repression of teachers as the Minister of Education. How does this affect the "referendum" campaign? Despite the fact that Igor Karpenko has been in the system for a long time and is also associated with falsifications, he will be in a new role. The commission will also include new people. This means that it will be more difficult for them to control everything. But let’s not forget: the falsifications on the ground are not directly organized by the chairman of the CEC, but by the heads of local executive committees, who form the commissions from people dependent on themselves. That is why it is so important that the election commissions have as many honest people as possible who are ready to speak the truth and honestly count the ballots. Therefore, it is so important that the Belarusian majority come to the polling stations and make the ballots invalid by putting crosses in front of all the options. This is how we show that we do not agree with the deception, this is how we loudly and together declare that we want real changes and new elections without Lukashenka. From the comments of the citizen who seized power, we see that he wants to usurp power even more. It depends on our actions in the "referendum" whether Belarus will follow the path of freedom and democracy or become an even greater dictatorship.

Australia has passed the Thematic Sanctions Act — and has joined the Global Magnitsky Act On December 2, in addition to the adoption of sanctions by the EU, the United States, Great Britain and Canada, another extremely important event took place. Australia has passed the Thematic Sanctions Act — and has joined the Global Magnitsky Act. The adoption of this law was actively promoted by the Belarusian diaspora in Australia. What is this law and why is its adoption very bad news for the Lukashenka’s regime? The Head of the NAM Pavel Latushka explained. — In fact, the adoption of the "Australian Magnitsky Act" means that Australia will begin to apply its own sanctions against individuals and legal entities guilty of violating human rights and the principle of the rule of law, including in Belarus. — The NAM and representatives of the Belarusian diaspora in Australia have already created a working group and began joint activities to develop sanctions lists, prepare the necessary evidence and relevant analytical notes for the Australian authorities — within the framework of the new law. — The Global Magnitsky Act is considered an international standard in the field of combating human rights violations. And the joining of Australia, along with other countries within the framework of international cooperation, is an event that will significantly increase external pressure on the Lukashenka’s regime and the total effect of the sanctions against it. — An important detail: 88% of Belarusian exports to Australia are potash fertilizers. — In addition to visa restrictions for perpetrators of human rights violations, the new law also provides for targeted financial sanctions, including an asset freeze. — It is known that Taiwan and the third economy in the world — Japan are also studying the possibility of joining the Global Magnitsky Act.

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s legal representative Sergei Zikratsky Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s legal representative, Sergei Zikratsky, is sure that the international community’s attention to crimes against humanity in Belarus is noticeable, but it is expressed more in statements than in lawsuits. And reminds of 4 ways to fix it: 1. Citizens of Belarus cannot file individual complaints against their country. But another state can file a complaint. Its consideration in the International Court of Justice (ICJ) is the most effective means of holding a country accountable under international law. This is a new tool, but it is based on thorough legal analysis and has already gained acceptance. Belarus has never appeared before the MC. But since the violations of human rights in it are unprecedented, the countries concerned should also think about an unprecedented step — filing it with the ICJ. 2. Each member state of the Chicago Convention (CC) can initiate a case against Belarus in the ICJ for the incident with the Ryanair plane. Any of them will also be able to appeal to the ICJ after the ICAO decision. All countries, the rights of citizens and organizations of which were violated then, can begin such a procedure. 3. The International Criminal Court (ICC) is the first thing that comes to mind when it comes to crimes against humanity. Belarus has not signed the Rome Statute, but in the practice of the ICC there are cases of crimes committed not in its member state. One of the ways: UN Security Council resolution. Decisions on such matters must be taken by consensus of all of its permanent members. And any country that agrees that crimes against humanity have been committed in Belarus can and should initiate such a decision. 4. The rules of universal jurisdiction in the criminal codes of many countries allow the initiation of cases there on crimes against humanity. One case was initiated in Lithuania, there are initiatives to open cases in Poland, Czech Republic, Germany, France — but this is not enough. We know the arguments about the refusal to start cases in some countries — and they are legally unfounded. The only reason: lack of political will. Declaration of the participants of the legal conference in Nuremberg

Pavel Latushka and Artsiom Praskalovich met with Latvian Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkevich at the initiative of the Latvian side During their meeting, the NAM members and Latvian representatives discussed the migration crisis, the hybrid aggression unleashed by the regime against the EU and the "referendum" planned by the illegitimate Lukashenka regime, as well as a number of other issues. Head of the NAM Pavel Latushka emphasized the importance of developing a collective strategy of the EU and the countries bordering with Belarus — Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine — as the most vulnerable to aggression by the dictator’s regime. The Minister informed Pavel Latushka about the firm and united position of the EU member-states in assessing and responding to the situation in Belarus and the impossibility of dialogue with Lukashenka, who carries out a large-scale repression against the Belarusians. The NAM lawyer Artsiom Praskalovich told about the preparations for Lukashenka’s "referendum" by democratic forces: about the future participants of the election commissions, who are already in contact with the community *Honest people, the support of a single campaign by all new initiatives and activists, as well as how the regime is already trying to counteract. The Latvian foreign minister was familiarized with the NAM’s proposed approaches to the criminal prosecution of Lukashenka and his accomplices, and expressed an opinion about the importance of working with the regime in this area of criminal liability. The minister also emphasized his unwavering support for the Belarusian people and the Belarusian democracies in their fight for democracy and human rights.

"Let the regime know: we have a plan for his 'referendum. The NAM Head Pavel Latushka on the stream of the blogger BalaganOFF First of all, we must mobilize using the "referendum". This is an opportunity for the supporters of change to see each other, to feel unity again. And through a "referendum" we must give a "vote of no confidence" in the dictator. All this can only be achieved through action. Yes, they will still falsify the results, we have no illusions. But if there are many honest people in the commissions, if we come to the polling stations and make the ballots invalid, it will be much more difficult for the regime. Lukashenka’s vertical is afraid that people will come to the polling stations. We can see it in the public and non-public reaction of the regime representatives. Democratic forces do not yet name a detailed action plan for the day of the "referendum" and after it; we do not want to reveal all the cards to the dictator prematurely. We are developing several scenarios at once. So let the regime know: we are ready and we will use this period.