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Pavel Latushka, Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, Ambassador In response to Western sanctions for specific violations of international law, Lukashenko periodically announces the implementation of counter-sanctions against countries that he views as unfriendly to him. However, the sanctions imposed by Lukashenko on Western countries hold no practical or economic significance for these nations. Yet, the dictator persistently enforces them. But why? He is well aware that these counter-sanctions, imposed on countries that he considers unfriendly, only exacerbate the situation in the Belarusian economy and fail to generate much-needed budget revenues. Nevertheless, the dictator aims to convince Belarusians that the Western sanctions are directed against the people. In reality, these sanctions are directed at Lukashenko himself, who illegitimately seized power, his ability to assist in Russian aggression against Ukraine, and his creation of a threat to regional security. They also aim to prevent Lukashenko and his inner circle from plundering the country's resources and wantonly destroying Belarus's natural wealth. Under such circumstances, it is crucial for Lukashenko to once again convince Belarusians that the sanctions are imposed on them. To achieve this goal, the dictator resorts to cunning and deception. He himself introduces sanctions that adversely impact Belarusians. The mechanics and propagandists take over, emphasizing that what matters is the fact that these are sanctions, regardless of their origin, and that Belarusians should feel their effects. The easiest way to achieve this is through the scarcity of various goods and services that Belarusians are accustomed to. Here are a few examples: After the adoption of the fifth package of EU sanctions "for ongoing violations of human rights and the instrumentalization of migrants," Lukashenko pledged to respond with "tough, asymmetrical, but proportionate measures." Consequently, a resolution from the Council of Ministers was issued, imposing a ban on the import of several agricultural goods, including meat, sausage, milk and dairy products, vegetables, and fruits. In response to the closure of checkpoints, Lukashenko prohibited the import of specific goods from Lithuania for sale in Belarus. These goods include clothing, vinegar, tires and tubes, as well as used vehicle parts and accessories. The import of other selected goods originating from Lithuania is also prohibited, such as condensed cream, fruits and nuts, coffee, fruit juices, vinegar, hosiery, certain construction products, refrigerators, and freezers. All these counter-sanctions imposed by Lukashenko will only affect Belarusian consumers by reducing the availability of commonly imported goods or by causing price increases not only for these goods but also for their Belarusian-produced alternatives. Lukashenko has never shown genuine concern for the well-being and prosperity of the Belarusian people. To the dictator, the people are mere pawns to sustain his usurped power.

Pavel Latushka, Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, Ambassador Lukashenko's sudden visit to Moscow and the subsequent public remarks have sparked numerous conclusions and contemplations. First and foremost, attention is drawn to the fact that Lukashenko was summoned to a meeting of the Russian Federation's Security Council, a body responsible for discussing and making critical strategic decisions. This occurrence suggests several possibilities. On one hand, Lukashenko's invitation sends a clear message that Belarus, under his leadership, is regarded as an integral part of the Russian Empire. This once again underscores Lukashenko's lack of independence, his subservience to the Kremlin, and his inability to pursue an autonomous foreign and military policy. At best, his capacity to do so is severely limited. On the other hand, Lukashenko's participation in the Russian Security Council meeting was likely intended to convey to him the necessary steps Belarus must take to further support and expand its involvement in the aggression against Ukraine. Lukashenko's subsequent public comments and statements indicate that he did not receive the understanding he sought within the Russian Security Council. Instead, he was confronted with a clear and unambiguous position: Belarus must become more deeply embroiled in the confrontation with Ukraine, and at a critical juncture, its territory should be made available for aggression not only towards Ukraine but potentially to destabilize the borders with European Union member states as well. Several pieces of evidence support this conclusion. Firstly, Lukashenko, as he has done many times before, utilizes public means of opposition in an attempt to resist the instructions issued to him by the Kremlin regarding domestic and foreign policy matters in Belarus. Lukashenko's public statements to the Russian media align with the notion that Russia needs a Belarus that is already engaged in warfare but no longer employed for direct military purposes. Yet, Lukashenko avoids delving into the specifics of Belarus' current support for Russia. It is clear to us that one of the principal factors is the contribution of Belarus' entire industrial sector to meeting the military demands of the Russian Federation, encompassing the production of weapons, weapon components, food supplies, uniforms, and other forms of material support for the Russian Armed Forces, in order to participate in the aggression against Ukraine. Simultaneously, Lukashenko repeatedly presents one of his primary arguments to the Kremlin against reutilizing Belarusian territory—the existence of lengthy borders with both Ukraine and NATO member countries, which purportedly create the threat of Russia being "stabbed in the back" via Belarus. The National Anti-Crisis Management team has previously noted the significance of this key argument put forth by Lukashenko. Why does the Kremlin reject this thesis? The Kremlin is well aware that none of the NATO member countries have any intention of carrying out aggression against Belarus, which completely undermines Lukashenko's claim about the need to protect the western borders to prevent a potential betrayal of Russia in its ongoing war. Regarding Ukraine, the dictator mentions the presence of a significant defense system on the Belarus-Ukraine border, the deployment of Ukrainian armed units, the mining of territories, and the construction of defensive structures. This contradicts Lukashenko's arguments about external threats and further confirms that Ukraine has no plans for aggressive actions against Belarus. This thesis requires no additional evidence since Ukraine is participating in the war in order to reclaim its own territories. Lukashenko's extensive and public efforts to emphasize the necessity of a "peaceful Belarus" for Russia serve as evidence that he failed to achieve this objective during the Russian Security Council meeting. It can be assumed that the Kremlin will continue to exert pressure on him in order to exploit Belarus' territory in a manner appropriate and advantageous for Russia's military and political interests. Another noteworthy aspect is Lukashenko's statement regarding his willingness to undertake a peacekeeping role between Ukraine and Russia. By refraining from making offensive statements against the Ukrainian President, and even addressing him familiarly as "Volodya," Lukashenko persistently proposes the initiation of peace negotiations. This approach aligns with Lukashenko's interests for several reasons. Firstly, it avoids involving Belarus in the continuation of the war. Secondly, Belarus' engagement in the war would have catastrophic consequences for Lukashenko himself, leading to a more negative perception within Belarusian society. Thirdly, such involvement would result in more severe international sanctions, leaving Lukashenko entirely accountable for his repeated overt participation in aggression against Ukraine. Lastly, Lukashenko is pursuing a crucial domestic political objective. He seeks to replicate the scenario of the 2015 elections when he managed to secure support from a significant portion of Belarusian society by purportedly playing a key role in initiating the Minsk negotiations. Strategically, Lukashenko aims to regain the role of mediator in the war between Ukraine and Russia. At the same time, it is important to consider that Lukashenko's role as a mediator has a time limit. It can be assumed that Moscow has taken a clear position that starting from May 21, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine loses legitimacy and cannot be involved in any negotiations. According to the aggressor's perspective, this provides Russia with full justification to continue military actions and occupy even larger territories of Ukraine. Consequently, the need to involve Lukashenko in the war will likely increase after May 21, 2024. Based on the analysis of Lukashenko's statements, the following conclusions can be drawn. Firstly, Lukashenko was unsuccessful in convincing Putin and the Russian Security Council to renounce the use of Belarusian territory for further aggression against Ukraine. Secondly, Lukashenko has been given a tactical opportunity to "play mediator." However, it is evident that the Kremlin is well aware of the insincerity of this role, as they themselves are not interested in negotiations until the occupied territories of Ukraine are incorporated into the Russian Constitution. Lukashenko is being used as a pawn in a public spectacle, and although it is likely that he is aware of this, he is unable to reject this puppet role due to its alignment with his own vested interests—maintaining power in Belarus. Thirdly, it can be assumed that Lukashenko has obtained an interim tacit agreement to retain the presidency for the time being, which he usurped in 2020. However, his future will depend on the unfolding situation in Ukraine, military operations, and the necessity of utilizing Belarusian territory for further aggression. It will also depend on Lukashenko's willingness or unwillingness to support the Kremlin's decisions. Lukashenko finds himself in a precarious and turbulent position, as he risks losing relevance and becoming an expendable figure for Putin. With a high degree of confidence, it can be predicted that in any case, the Kremlin can leverage the electoral situation in Belarus in 2025 to diminish Lukashenko's influence, reducing him from a kneeling position to a position of complete subservience.

Pavel Latushka, Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, Ambassador Recently, the dictator has begun discussing his significant role in the post-war future and has complained that Vladimir Zelensky has been "bullying" him and "getting him involved in incomprehensible processes." Well, how is it that the main "peacekeeper" in the region is suddenly involved in something incomprehensible? Let's try to help Lukashenko understand what these "incomprehensible processes" are. On February 24, 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Belarus, with Lukashenko's consent and full support, became a launchpad for the attack on the Kyiv region. Perhaps Lukashenko still doesn't grasp the implications? In this case, the UN General Assembly Resolution of December 14, 1974, specifically adopted to define acts of aggression, can come to his aid. Specifically, Article 3, paragraph f of this Resolution states that an act of aggression, among other things, will be classified as "an act of a state allowing its territory, which it has made available to another state, to be used by that other state to commit an act of aggression against a third state." The invasion from Belarus into Ukraine, facilitated by the Lukashenko regime, is an act of aggression. Providing Belarusian territory and infrastructure for over 800 missile attacks on Ukrainian territory is an act of aggression. Aggression is one of the four most serious crimes under international law. They are all listed in the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court: Genocide; Crimes against humanity; War crimes; Crime of aggression. Lukashenko has committed at least three out of these four crimes. Potentially, all four if we consider the Resolution of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, adopted in April of last year, which addressed the deportation and forced transfer of Ukrainian children and other civilians from the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine. In this resolution, the Parliamentary Assembly called Lukashenko complicit in these war crimes and called for him to be held accountable. Additionally, it characterized these crimes as having indications of genocide. In January 2024, as a follow-up to this resolution, a new resolution was adopted by the Parliamentary Assembly on the situation with children in Ukraine. It once again highlighted the role of the Lukashenko regime in committing the aforementioned crimes and called on Council of Europe member countries to recognize the deportation of Ukrainian children as genocide. In addition to crimes against Ukraine, from May 2020 to May 2023, according to a report by the Justice Hub Center for Law and Democracy, at least 136,000 Belarusian men, women, and minors fell victim to crimes against humanity committed by the Lukashenko regime. These crimes continue to be perpetrated to this day. The crime of aggression persists, just as the war crimes of the Lukashenko regime do. His complicity in the war and his assistance to Russia in circumventing sanctions also continue. What Lukashenko refers to as "incomprehensible processes" have clear definitions. These are grave international crimes. The dictator and his accomplices will be held accountable for each of them. These are not incomprehensible matters, but specific criminal cases.

Expert Opinion from NAM Lawyers In light of the adoption of the new United Nations Human Rights Council resolution on Belarus, numerous statements have been made about its significance in establishing accountability for serious human rights violations and international crimes committed in Belarus. As the NAM works towards ensuring justice in Belarus and considers it essential to prioritize objectivity in the interest of victims, we would like to share our perspective on the importance of the new resolution. The new resolution undoubtedly strengthens the potential of existing human rights mechanisms. It establishes the creation of a group of three independent experts on the human rights situation in Belarus, to be renewed annually. The group's tasks will include: Conducting investigations and establishing facts regarding serious human rights violations in Belarus since May 1, 2020; Gathering, summarizing, preserving, and analyzing evidence of such violations, and where possible, identifying those responsible for the purpose of conducting appropriate judicial and other proceedings, including criminal prosecution; Providing recommendations, particularly regarding measures for accountability; Engaging with all stakeholders, particularly Belarusian actors, and when appropriate, with the authorities in Belarus. Despite the announcement of the creation of a new mechanism, the de facto reform of the previously existing group of three experts, which was under the mandate of OHCHR, is taking place. In accordance with the new resolution, the group receives independent status, but fully retains the areas of its activities that existed previously. It is additionally given the power to identify those responsible for serious human rights violations. It is planned that the reformed mechanism will “inherit” the results of previous work. The new status of this group will help maintain the independence and objectivity of expert assessments, excluding possible political influence on conclusions and recommendations. NAM fully welcomes and supports such strengthening of the capacity of the human rights mechanism for Belarus and is grateful to the organizations that have made a significant contribution to its reform. At the same time, NAM considers it necessary to note that statements that the reformed group “was created for the purpose of bringing the Lukashenko regime to responsibility for international crimes” are incorrect. In order to avoid misleading interpretations of the resolution that create inflated expectations on the part of victims regarding the effectiveness of the process, NAM draws attention to the following key aspects of the accountability mechanism: First, it is worth noting that the term “crimes” is used exclusively in the context of criminal liability, which applies to individuals and not to the regime as a whole. Secondly, the resolution clearly states the exclusively recommendatory and advisory nature of the group’s work. The results of its activities do not lead to direct consequences for bringing the perpetrators to criminal liability. Thirdly, it must be taken into account that the group is a human rights institution with standards that differ from criminal mechanisms. The thresholds of proof under criminal standards are much higher and often the results of purely human rights work are not applicable to criminal proceedings. It should be noted that the work of documenting serious crimes in Belarus according to criminal law standards is carried out by theInternational Accountability Platform for Belarus (IAPB). Working according to different standards avoids duplicating the mandates of the two mechanisms and better serves the interests of victims. Public statements aimed at restoring the rights of victims require a responsible approach based on the basic principle of “do no harm” and a victim-centered approach.

"More than 6,000 enterprises, with Belarusian companies or citizens of Belarus as shareholders, were operational in Poland in 2023. Additionally, there were 12,000 Belarusian citizens engaged in sole proprietorship (JDG), and 122,000 Belarusian citizens contributed to social security in Poland. Moreover, over 12,000 Belarusian students pursued their studies in Poland. It is noteworthy that the majority of Belarusians who left their home country ended up in Poland. They have aspirations to work legally, study, pay taxes, and develop their businesses," stated Pavel Latushka, deputy head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus and head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, during his speech at the conference "Migration as a Political, Social, and Economic Problem" in Slesin, Poland. The conference, attended by representatives from Belarus, Poland, and Ukraine, was taking place from April 10 to April 11 this year. Almost four years of continuous repression have resulted in a situation where Belarusian students, pensioners, businessmen, drivers, doctors, lawyers, individuals seeking marriage or divorce, newborns, and adults in exile, as well as numerous Belarusians deprived of their professions, have sought refuge in Poland. These individuals have lost their property, livelihoods, and the ability to comply with the requirements of Polish legislation regarding legalization and administrative procedures. Assisting Belarusians abroad is one of the most crucial tasks for the democratic forces of Belarus. During his speech, Pavel Latushka addressed the following issues: The importance of restoring the Polish Business Harbour program; Simplifying the legalization process for Belarusian children born or reaching adulthood in Poland; Examining the possibility of extending the validity of humanitarian residence permits issued in Poland beyond the current three-year period. Additionally, considering the issuance of humanitarian visas not only to individuals who have faced repression but also to their relatives, including Belarusians residing in third countries; Extending the validity of Polish travel documents to three years; Exploring the possibility of protecting the interests of individuals who have received international protection in Poland in third countries; Simplifying the procedure for filing applications for marriage registration; Resolving pension provision issues for individuals in international protection status and on other grounds; Reducing the requirement for Belarusian students to provide documents from Belarusian government bodies for admission and continuation of their studies in Poland; Providing international protection for Belarusian students based on information about attempted conscription into the army or the threat of criminal prosecution for draft evasion; Potential refusal by government agencies and universities to provide documents concerning students when requested by Belarusian government agencies in order to prevent further political repression; Creating favorable conditions for the development of Belarusian businesses in Poland; Eliminating discrimination against Belarusians in Poland in all forms of interaction with private organizations and the state, such as opening bank accounts, among others; Reducing the time required for administrative procedures related to the legalization of Belarusians in Poland, particularly in the Lower Silesian Voivodeship and Wroclaw. Pavel Latushka has already submitted an appeal to the Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs of Poland and the voivode of the Lower Silesian Voivodeship, requesting a meeting to find solutions that expedite the issuance of documents to Belarusian citizens residing in this region. Pavel Latushka also emphasized, "The dictatorship in Belarus is not eternal, as demonstrated by the example of Poland. We are interested in Poland becoming a strategic partner of a democratic Belarus in Europe, in both politics and economics. Our deep common history, absence of past conflicts, and close cultural and traditional ties provide advantages for future collaboration." The leadership of the Higher School of Management Personnel and NAM will transmit the necessary materials to the government authorities of Poland for resolving problematic issues faced by Belarusians.

The NAM lawyer Artsiom Praskalovich provided information on the potential danger of such involvement: “Those who engage in such "work" can face up to 10 years of imprisonment, depending on their achievements within Wagner's Private Military Company (PMC). If the individual is involved in murder, the sentence may be increased to 25 years or even life imprisonment. Working for Wagner is illegal There are specific legal provisions regarding the recruitment of mercenaries and participation in armed formations within foreign territories. If a Belarusian citizen participates in skirmishes in African states or commits murder, Belarusian authorities have the ability to initiate criminal proceedings if they choose to do so. Lukashenko continues to allow Wagner presence in Belarus Lukashenko does not interfere with the activities of their recruitment centers because he does not see the need to do so. Unlike Russia, Belarus does not have a separate office for Wagner. However, if they wish to conduct activities, they must adhere to the rules set by local security forces, with whom they consult. As long as their activities do not "cross the borders" (meaning they are not actively publicized in the media), they can safely recruit Belarusians. Currently, there are approximately 300 Wagnerians in Belarus, primarily focused on training and sharing their experiences.

Pavel Latushka: Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, Ambassador More than 220 illegal migrants attempted to break through from Belarus to Poland on April 10. The daily attempts by tens or even hundreds of people trying to illegally enter Poland have become increasingly common. There has also been a noticeable increase in illegal migration on the borders with Latvia and Lithuania. And this is all happening before the arrival of summer. Lukashenko's actions are guided by instructions from the Kremlin, with the goal of destabilizing the situation on the border with NATO members and diverting EU resources away from assisting Ukraine. We cannot discount the possibility of a large-scale provocation, potentially even triggering Article 5 of the NATO Charter. It is crucial to recognize that representatives of Belarusian and Russian intelligence services, as well as members of the Wagner Group, may attempt to infiltrate EU territory among the illegal migrants. According to Lukashenko and the Kremlin's plan, the destabilization on the border should ultimately lead to the complete closure of border crossings with the EU. Interestingly, they aim to achieve this while making it appear as if the West is responsible for such a decision. The closure of borders is part of the preparations for the next phase of the war, and we cannot dismiss this possibility either. For us, it is important that border crossings remain open for ordinary citizens, while focusing on blocking freight railway traffic. This strategy would exert significant pressure on the regime and involve China in finding a solution to the issue of illegal migration.

Yury Hubarevich, the officer responsible for regional development at NAM, gave a commentary to the FREEDOM channel on the usurper's statements about preparations for war. Throughout 30 years of his rule, the dictator has consistently claimed that Belarus is surrounded by enemies, with the exception of Russia, which has been a traditional ally for him. However, recent years have had a significant impact on this perception. Being his formal ally, Lukashenko is compelled to align himself with Putin's interests. In 2022, he allowed Russian forces to use Belarusian territory for invasion in Ukraine, accommodated Russian military personnel, provided them with medical assistance, and conducted joint military exercises. It is evident that Lukashenko cannot maintain a facade of peace while the war rages on elsewhere. Is Russia prepared to initiate a new war in Europe? Within Russia, there appears to be a readiness among the population. This sentiment was reflected in the results of the recent presidential elections, where more than half of the population still exhibits a willingness to fight and die for Putin, much like they did for Stalin. This mentality is deeply ingrained in Russian society. What about the stance of Belarusians regarding the matter? The sentiments in Belarus are entirely different. If Lukashenko were to send Belarusian soldiers into this dangerous situation, it could have severe consequences for him. Lukashenko is aware of these risks and attempts to limit his involvement to rhetoric about conducting military exercises. It is highly unlikely that Lukashenko would unilaterally decide to involve the Belarusian army in an actual military operation.

Source: Polskie Radio 24 Unofficial translation "We are not focused enough on Lukashenko as a problem, and this may have disastrous consequences," warns Pavel Latushka, deputy of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. He also highlighted the lack of a coherent strategy from the West towards Belarus, in contrast to Russia's clear intentions in the region. "The pro-democratic majority in Belarus may be shrinking (…). And without adequately addressing the 'Belarusian problem’, peace in the region would remain elusive," he said. “In contrast to Russia, the West lacks a comprehensive strategy towards Belarus. The Western powers should develop a strategy that aligns with the pro-democratic majority within Belarus. However, the time is of the essence, as this majority may diminish over time,” Latushka stressed. Recently, Aleksandr Lukashenko has been increasingly alluding to the possibility of war, hinting that it may be inevitable. For instance, during a visit to Grodno in early April, he declared that “Belarus was preparing for war” while simultaneously asserting that his country did not seek conflict. Since the spring of 2022, Belarus has been conducting continuous military exercises, and in March, a combat readiness test was announced for the Belarusian army. Pavel Latushka, Vice-Prime Minister of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s government and the head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, shared his thoughts on these developments and the implications of Lukashenko's statements with PolskieRadio24.pl. He was asked whether these signals should be a cause for concern, whether they might be mere bluffs, or is there a bit of both. "Lukashenko is preparing for war. These are his words, and his actions confirm it. In my opinion, Lukashenko knows when war will come to Belarus. This is what his last statement means — Pavel Latushka told the PolskieRadio24.pl portal when asked about the latest statements of the Belarusian dictator. Latushka also recalled Lukashenko's prior knowledge of the planned aggression against Ukraine, which was also launched from Belarusian territory. “Lukashenko had discussed the impending war during a meeting in Vitebsk on December 15, 2021, two months before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. He had remarked that "no war has spared us in the past or will miss us now. God forbid it breaks out." Just a month prior to that statement, Lukashenko and Vladimir Putin had signed an updated military doctrine for the so-called Union State, establishing a joint Regional Group of Troops comprising Belarusian and Russian forces. Two months after Lukashenko's statement on December 15, 2021, a full-scale war against Ukraine began, with the Lukashenko regime providing the territory of Belarus to Russia and thus becoming a co-aggressor.” The adoption of the new military doctrine of the Union State of Russia and Belarus was announced during a meeting of the Supreme Council of the Union State of Belarus and Russia on November 4, 2021. The document's text was published in February of the following year. Latushka emphasized that Lukashenko's prior knowledge and preparations for the Ukrainian invasion should serve as a cautionary example. He urged the international community to recognize that Lukashenko likely possesses similar foresight regarding future events and is making corresponding preparations. As Pavel Latushka pointed out, Lukashenko knew what would happen and was preparing for it. “It’s a similar situation now, so we should assume that Lukashenko already knows what will happen and is also preparing for that,” the former ambassador noted. As Latushka recalled, Russian troops attacked Kyiv and other areas of Ukraine from Belarus, but Minsk did not experience any retaliatory attacks. The oppositionist believes that Lukashenko is concerned that his actions may lead to armed retaliation this time. "The only thing he was wrong about before was Ukraine's reaction. Ukraine decided, taking into account its national interest, not to respond to blows and not to transfer the war to the territory of Belarus. Of course, the West didn't want that either. So how should we understand Lukashenko's new, or rather not so new, statement today? “In this case, his words should be taken literally. He is really preparing for war, just like in December 2021.” “Moreover, just like then, he definitely knows when it will happen, and he knows that no one will tolerate another aggression from the territory of Belarus. It will be the second time, but this time there will be military retaliation. That's why Lukashenko says he is preparing for war, and that's why he talks about it to society," notes Pavel Latushka. Lukashenko follows Putin's order "Lukashenko knows that war may come to Belarus, just like in February 2022. He does not intend to do anything to prevent this war. As then, he obediently follows the Kremlin's orders. Both then and now, he is not the master of the house but a puppet who will do whatever Mr. Putin demands," Pavel Latushka noted. The oppositionist emphasizes that Lukashenka has long made Belarus dependent on Russia, including economically. "The Lukashenko regime has been living on borrowed money for decades and has been fed by Russian hands for decades. This did not happen after 2020; it has always been like this. It was only thanks to Russia's support that he stayed in power after losing the 2020 elections, and Belarus is paying a terrible price for it. His actions have already led Belarus to almost lose its independence and violated international law by allowing acts of aggression from its territory. And now his actions may escalate the war that is on the country's doorstep," warns the former ambassador. Lukashenko changed the legislation Pavel Latushka also assesses that a number of factors may indicate preparations for a possible war. "Let's look at what has been happening in Belarus recently. Several directions can be indicated here. First of all, Lukashenko is changing the legislation. Acts that may be important in war conditions are being changed," Pavel Latushka explains. Pavel Latushka has given several examples, "New laws were introduced, for example on military volunteers ('On People's Militia'). The death penalty for betraying the regime has been introduced for military officers and officials Lukashenko is afraid that the military may not obey his order. He altered the military regulations, granting soldiers the right to shoot at civilians without repercussions," Pavel Latushka said. These are just a few examples. Recently, Lukashenko has also signed a law enabling conscription via SMS and allowing convicted individuals to serve under contract if he deems it necessary. Additionally, the defense budget has increased by 29 percent, with a corresponding increase in local defense budgets. According to Pavel Latushka, in addition to adapting legislation to a possible war situation, Lukashenko is increasing military resources and buying new weapons. "The defense budget has been increased by 29 percent, with a corresponding increase in local defense budgets," he said. “On October 23, 2023, the annex to the draft budget bill stated that Minsk would allocate 3,577,196,311 Belarusian rubles ($1.1 billion) for defense. Belarus's planned budget expenditure on national defense for 2023 amounts to 2.77 billion Belarusian rubles ($0.85 billion). This represents a 29.2 percent increase in this amount," reports the media. The TASS agency additionally added that "in 2023, the expenditure of the Minsk budget on national defense increased one and a half times compared to 2022." Defense line along the border Latushka mentions the construction of defense lines in the Gomel, Brest, and Grodno regions of Belarus. In June 2023, reports emerged stating that fortifications were being constructed near the village of Saki in the Brest Oblast. This information was provided by various sources, including Belaruski Hajun Telegram channel. Prior to this, independent media had disclosed the construction of fortifications, measuring approximately 2 kilometers in length, in the Gomel Oblast. These fortifications were referred to as the Khrenin Line, named after the Belarusian Minister of Defense. There is limited information available regarding the size, purpose, and other details of these structures. "These are special infrastructure solutions that will enable long-term survival without ammunition and food supplies. It's not about someone deciding to commit aggression against Belarus. He is considering a situation in which there might be a response against the regime as a result of aggression involving Belarus against Ukraine or NATO. In such a situation, he would rely on the defensive infrastructure he has created," says Pavel Latushka. Expansion of military bases The oppositionist also revealed that Lukashenko is establishing several new military bases in Belarus. "These include combat training centers, such as the joint military exercise center of Russia and Belarus in Grodno, located near the border with Poland. Russian troops have also arrived in Baranovichi. There are centers related to air defense, which are intended for aviation purposes as well. "He has established two additional military aviation bases in Luniniec, near the border with Ukraine in the Brest region. There is also a base in Ziabrouka, in the Gomel region, right on the border with Ukraine. These bases are used for military aviation and anti-aircraft defense. Furthermore, the 'mixed' military base of Mochulischi near Minsk, which serves as an aviation and anti-aircraft defense base, is being expanded," stated Mr. Latushka. In January 2023, Lukashenko made the decision to create a new anti-aircraft regiment in Luniniec near the border with Ukraine. The decision to establish the joint exercise center in Grodno was made in Moscow on March 5, 2021. Baranovichi, Ziabrouka, and Mochulischi are also locations where Russian troops have been deployed. "If Lukashenko only wanted to create the appearance of preparations, would it make sense to invest such huge funds and change legislation?” The answer, according to Pavel Latushka, is that these are not mere appearances but real preparations for war. In addition, continuous military exercises have been taking place in Belarus since spring 2022. Propaganda The oppositionist highlighted the intensification of propaganda as the third factor indicating Lukashenko's plans. It is likely that this propaganda narrative is being developed with the assistance of advisors from Russia. "The third factor is propaganda. Independent media in Belarus have been dismantled. Lukashenko, using the propaganda apparatus that he fully controls, is trying to instill in Belarusians the narrative that enemies are everywhere. These enemies include Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, NATO, the United States, and Great Britain. Even the new military doctrine, which is set to be approved in April by the All-Belarusian National Assembly, designates neighboring countries, except Russia, as well as the United States and Great Britain, as unfriendly countries," noted the former minister and diplomat, deputy of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. "It must be understood that Lukashenko is under Russia's influence. He has substantial financial obligations. This year, Belarus must begin repaying a loan of approximately USD 3 billion to Russia for the construction of a nuclear power plant in the Grodno region,” Pavel Latushka stated. "It's not just a matter of Lukashenko's financial dependence on Russia. The problem lies in his mentality. Lukashenko supports Russia because, from his perspective, Russia is an ally. He has a pro-Russian orientation, although he will try to play a game whenever possible to maintain his power. Who can overthrow him? Only the Belarusian people and Russia. The Belarusian nation currently lives under a totalitarian system - no demonstrations can be organized, and detentions and arrests occur daily, with people being sentenced to imprisonment. Just recently, in Baranovichi, 17 people were sentenced to imprisonment in one day. Lukashenko will do everything in Russia's interests. He is dependent on it and, at the same time, he understands that he is responsible, along with Putin, for the crimes and the war," explained the oppositionist. What should be done? Pavel Latushka emphasized the need to develop a strategy for Belarus, stating that the West, the European Union, and the United States have not yet formulated one, allowing Russia to have its way, because it has such a strategy. "First of all, our partners and neighbors must understand that until Belarus becomes a democratic country, it will pose a threat to the security of neighboring countries, NATO, the European Union, and Ukraine," Latushka said . Latushka expressed the belief that if the West had strongly supported the Belarusian people in 2020, when millions were protesting on the streets, imposing severe sanctions and backing the protests, Belarus could have a democratic government today. "And could we have envisioned a war between Russia and Ukraine? I believe it is doubtful and unlikely. Hence, it is crucial for all neighboring countries of Belarus and the entire West to develop a strategy regarding the regime," stated Pavel Latushka. "The Belarusian people are the most powerful force that can oppose Lukashenko," he emphasized. Recent sociological research indicates that only a small percentage of Belarusians desire their country to be part of Russia; they support an independent Belarus. The majority of Belarusians are against the participation of the Belarusian army in the war in Ukraine and are in favor of democratic development prospects for their country. According to Pavel Latushka, “recent sociological research indicates that only a small percentage of Belarusians, even in recent years, desire their country to be part of Russia. They strongly support an independent Belarus. This research, conducted by sociologist Andrei Vardomatski and other centers, highlights these findings. The majority of Belarusians oppose the involvement of the Belarusian army in the Ukrainian conflict. Recent surveys have demonstrated that approximately 66 percent of Belarusians favor the prospects of democratic development for their country. It is important to consider that these sociological studies are conducted within the context of a totalitarian regime, and people are apprehensive about answering such questions. Nevertheless, they express their opposition to the war, Lukashenko, and their support for the democratic advancement of Belarus. They do not wish to become part of the Russian Federation,” he added. “The situation in Russia is different. There, the majority backs the war and supports Putin. It is imperative for us to establish a clear demarcation line and develop a suitable strategy. We should lend support to Belarusian society by endorsing the independent press, implementing diverse programs of assistance within the country, and recognizing the democratic forces of Belarus as a viable alternative to Lukashenko's unlawful governance. Furthermore, we must acknowledge the democratic structures of Belarus and hold Lukashenko accountable," he emphasized. The oppositionist cautioned that although the majority of Belarusians presently oppose both the war and Lukashenko, this majority is gradually diminishing. "People are losing faith in democracy as an effective instrument for achieving change. Consequently, it is crucial to hold Lukashenko and his associates accountable for their actions in Belarus. While an F-16 plane costs $54 million, support from Belarusian society comes at a significantly lower cost. I am not suggesting that aid for Ukraine be questioned or compromised. However, it should not be an 'either-or' scenario," he remarked. "Each country must prioritize its defense and procure necessary weapons. Our strategic objective is to support Ukraine, which we discuss and advocate for in all international meetings. Representatives of Belarus's democratic structures consistently affirm that the strategy of the democratic forces of Belarus is to support Ukraine. However, we must not forget about Belarusian society. If we lose their support, there is a risk that Belarusian soldiers could be prepared to invade neighboring countries and back Russia in a year, two, or three years. It would be a tragic outcome," cautioned the oppositionist. "Currently, Russia is the only country with a defined strategy concerning Belarus. We require a strategy accompanied by tangible actions, not mere rhetoric. This is precisely what Belarusians expect — concrete actions," appealed the activist. Belarusian issue "The resolution of the regional problems associated with the war instigated by Russia with the support of Lukashenko must include Belarus," emphasized Pavel Latushka, adding that it is essential to address the ‘Belarusian issue’ in order to comprehensively address the problems in the region. "We must recognize that ignoring Belarus, failing to pay attention to it, and not giving it the necessary focus will lead to further threats and complications. Let's consider what Lukashenko is currently doing: he continues to deliberately send hundreds of illegal migrants to the border, artificially destabilizing the situation. He does this both in his own interest and in the interest of Russia. If Belarus had a democratic government, such actions would not occur. Achieving this goal will be a challenging task. We have already lost valuable time, so let's not waste any more, or else we risk losing the support of society. If that happens, finding a solution may become impossible for decades," cautioned the Belarusian oppositionist. *** The interview with Pavel Latushka, deputy of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, former Minister of Culture, former ambassador to Poland and France, was conducted by Agnieszka Kamińska, PolskieRadio24.pl *** References to some of the documents and information mentioned above Lukashenko's meeting with activists in Vitebsk on December 15, 2021 The military doctrine of the Union State of Russia and Belarus adopted on November 4, 2021 The law on the people's militia (Source: nashaniva.com) Increase in defense expences, with the amount being increased by 29.2 percent. A center for joint military exercises of Russia and Belarus will be established in Grodno. The decision was made on March 21 in Moscow. (Source: tass.ru) There has been an announcement of a new military doctrine in Belarus. An example of public opinion research in Belarus, conducted by an independent center.

Belgium has made the decision to join the group of friends of democratic Belarus in the OSCE. This group comprises over 10 partner countries that support the democratic forces in Belarus. The announcement was made by Jeroen Kurman, the Director General of the Belgian Foreign Ministry, during a working meeting with Pavel Latushka, the deputy head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus and the head of the NAM, at the Belgian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The primary focus of the meeting was the implementation of a strategy to provide support to Belarusian society, including backing independent media and promoting the national identity of Belarusians. During the meeting, discussions were held on the accountability of the Lukashenko regime for the committed crimes, including Belgium's support and that of international organizations in advocating for issues of Lukashenko's responsibility within the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court. Separately, the responsibility of Lukashenko for war crimes related to the unlawful movement of Ukrainian children was also addressed. The functioning of democratic institutions in Belarus and the support they receive from the Belgian Foreign Ministry were also topics of discussion. Belgium currently holds the presidency of the European Union, with one of its priorities being the adoption of a collective decision on the coordination of sanctions against the Lukashenko regime and the Russian Federation in response to their aggression against Ukraine. Special attention was given to the imposition of sanctions for the utilization of forced labor by political prisoners in Belarusian prisons within the realm of sanctions.

Pavel Latushka: Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, Ambassador Pavel Latushka, the Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet and Head of NAM, along with representatives of NAM, participated in a special meeting of the Working Group on Eastern Europe and Central Asia, which serves as the preparatory body for the Council of the EU. This working group prepares proposals for decision-making at the level of foreign ministers and heads of state of the EU. The primary focus of the meeting was to explore potential actions for holding Lukashenko and his accomplices accountable for their crimes against the Belarusian and Ukrainian peoples. On behalf of the National Anti-Crisis Management, Pavel Latushka outlined five possible mechanisms for bringing representatives of the regime to justice. The meeting was convened in accordance with a decision made by the Belarus-EU Consultative Group in Brussels in December 2023. During the group meeting, Pavel Latushka presented a strategic vision for the steps that the EU can take to support Belarusians, as well as actions aimed at enhancing the effectiveness of the sanctions policy against the Lukashenko regime. "Bringing Lukashenko to international accountability can potentially be achieved through at least five mechanisms: The International Criminal Court has jurisdiction over crimes against humanity, including deportation (the forced displacement of over 300,000 Belarusians from Belarus due to various forms of persecution can be considered as deportation); Recognition of Lukashenko as a war criminal. The ICC also has jurisdiction over the illegal transfer of Ukrainian children from Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine to Belarus; Initiation of national investigations (in Poland, Lithuania, Czech Republic, Germany, and Switzerland) based on the principle of universal jurisdiction to hold those responsible accountable; The future Special International Tribunal for Russian Aggression in Ukraine would have jurisdiction to investigate the role of Lukashenko and his accomplices in the aggression; If established, the Special International Tribunal for Belarus could investigate all crimes against humanity committed against the Belarusian people." Pavel Latushka emphasized that the main driving force for achieving a free, democratic, and European Belarus is the Belarusian people. To further support this, concrete steps were proposed for consideration by the European Union: Identification of European partner countries willing to jointly undertake targeted legal action to refer evidence of crimes against humanity, particularly related to deportation, to the International Criminal Court; Advocacy by EU countries and support from Ukraine in initiating the issuance of an arrest warrant for Lukashenko for war crimes associated with the illegal transfer of Ukrainian children to Belarus and their re-education; Priority support program for independent media; Support for the national identity of Belarusians and the promotion of Belarusian culture in emigration; Providing increased opportunities for Belarusians to visit the European Union and obtain multiple-entry Schengen visas. "The primary strategy is to support the Belarusian people. It is crucial for us to recognize that the Belarusian people are the main force within Belarus to counter and restrain Lukashenko, especially in the face of aggression against Ukraine. In 2020, Belarusians opposed the dictator, and in 2022, they stood against the war unleashed by Russia in Ukraine. If the Lukashenko regime decides to provide territory for the offensive of Russian troops into Ukraine or any EU member state, the Belarusian people will be our main strength. Therefore, they require motivation and support," emphasized Pavel Latushka. Pavel Latushka stressed that sanctions are one of several methods to exert pressure on the regime. "While it may appear that sanctions are becoming less effective over time, we should not discuss lifting sanctions but rather focus on enhancing their effectiveness. Here, we propose implementing several systemic steps: Harmonizing trade sanctions between Belarus and Russia to maximize their effectiveness and weaken the capabilities of aggressors. Restricting the transit of sanctioned goods through Belarus to address the issue of circumventing sanctions. This can be achieved through rigorous border control measures and, as an option, the introduction of EU trade quotas with third countries based on pre-war levels. Imposing sanctions on the financial infrastructure used to bypass restrictions, such as isolating SPFS (the Russian equivalent of SWIFT), as well as Belarusian banks, by closing their correspondent accounts in EU banks. Prioritizing sectoral sanctions over targeted sanctions on individual enterprises in the sanctions policy. Introducing sanctions against officials and institutions associated with the so-called Union State, which undermines the sovereignty and independence of Belarus. Sanctions targeting goods produced in Belarusian prisons as alternatives to banned goods. Implementing personal sanctions against regime judges involved in the repression of Belarusians, as well as propagandists who support aggression." Additionally, Pavel Latushka emphasized the importance of motivating Belarusian society and increasing the openness of the European Union to Belarusian citizens. This includes opening checkpoints for ordinary citizens while limiting the regime's ability to exploit trade for Russia's interests and expanding the financing of repression. During the discussion on the situation in Belarus, representatives from Austria, Bulgaria, Greece, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Finland, the Czech Republic, Estonia, and other countries presented their positions. The issue of legalizing the stay of Belarusian citizens who were forced to leave Belarus and are currently residing in EU countries was raised and discussed. The recognition of the Cabinet passport as an identification document for Belarusian citizens was also addressed. Separately, at the request of EU member states' representatives, concerns were raised about the regime's actions to change legislation following the declaration of martial law, the development of military infrastructure in Belarus, and the militaristic propaganda propagated by Lukashenko and regime representatives. Pavel Latushka also had a meeting with Ambassador Dirk Schuebel, the Special Representative of the European Union for the Eastern Partnership, to discuss the potential use of Eastern Partnership tools for cooperation with Belarusian society.

The issue of holding Lukashenko accountable will be discussed within the European Union. On April 8 in Brussels, Pavel Latushka, Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet and Head of the National-Anti-Crisis Management, will deliver a report at a special session of the Working Group on Eastern Europe and Central Asia. This group consists of authorized representatives from the 27 member countries of the European Union. During the session, Latushka will present his perspective on possible ways for holding Lukashenko and his associates accountable for crimes committed against the Belarusian and Ukrainian peoples. The discussion on these matters at a high political level in the EU is being conducted in accordance with the agreements reached at the meeting of the Belarus-EU Consultative Group, which took place in Brussels in December 2023. Pavel Latushka will present five possible ways of utilizing international mechanisms to achieve the goal of accountability. Additionally, Pavel Latushka will hold meetings in Brussels with the leadership of the Belgian Foreign Ministry and the European External Action Service of the European Union.